2013年-世界发展银行全球_South_East_Europe_Regular_Economic_Report_No_5___Slow_Road_to_Recovery_48页_1mb

Summary of South East Europe Regular Economic Report No.5

Core Content

The South East Europe (SEE6) region, comprising Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia, experienced a modest recovery from a double-dip recession in the first half of 2013, supported by a rebound in the Euro Area. The report outlines the region's recent economic developments, macroeconomic outlook, and structural challenges, while also highlighting the role of external factors and the need for reform.

Main Views

• Economic Recovery: The region exited recession in early 2013, with a modest growth rate of 1.8 percent in the first half of the year. This was driven by a recovery in exports, especially in Serbia, and favorable weather conditions boosting agricultural output.
• Export Growth: Exports increased significantly, with Serbia leading the way due to manufacturing and energy exports. The combined exports of SEE6 grew by nearly 13 percent year-on-year, supported by the Euro Area's gradual recovery and new FDI-based export capacity.
• Domestic Demand: Domestic demand remained weak across most of the region, hindered by high unemployment, sluggish household income growth, and a poor investment climate. Public investment in FYR Macedonia and Kosovo helped slightly strengthen domestic demand.
• Inflation and Disinflation: Inflationary pressures eased due to improved agricultural output and favorable weather, but unit labor costs continued to rise, undermining competitiveness and economic growth.
• Credit Growth: Credit growth was depressed in most SEE6 countries, with banks reluctant to extend new loans due to high non-performing loans (NPLs) and weak credit conditions.
• Fiscal Pressures: Fiscal deficits remained high, with the average deficit in the region expected to stay at 4.2 percent of GDP in 2013. Public debt rose to 45 percent of GDP, with some countries like Albania, Montenegro, and Serbia exceeding 60 percent of GDP.
• Financial Sector Vulnerabilities: NPLs reached concerning levels in Albania and Serbia, with weak insolvency regimes and public sector arrears contributing to the problem. Despite sufficient liquidity and lower policy rates, banks remained cautious in lending.
• Investment Climate: The investment climate in the region remains poor, with FDI growth sluggish. However, some progress was made in the past year, with FDI in Serbia and FYR Macedonia doubling, mainly in manufacturing.

Key Information

Economic Growth

• Growth Rates (2012–2014):
  • Albania: 1.6% (2012), 1.3% (2013), 2.1% (2014)
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina: -1.1% (2012), 0.8% (2013), 2.0% (2014)
  • Kosovo: 2.7% (2012), 3.0% (2013), 4.0% (2014)
  • FYR Macedonia: -0.4% (2012), 2.5% (2013), 3.0% (2014)
  • Montenegro: -2.5% (2012), 1.8% (2013), 2.5% (2014)
  • Serbia: -1.7% (2012), 2.0% (2013), 1.0% (2014)
  • SEE6 Average: -0.7% (2012), 1.8% (2013), 1.8% (2014)

External Developments

• Current Account Balances: Improved due to higher exports and lower imports, particularly in Serbia and FYR Macedonia.
• FDI Inflows: Increased in 2013, especially in manufacturing in Serbia and FYR Macedonia, and infrastructure in Kosovo and Albania.
• Worker Remittances: Declined slightly in 2013, mainly due to the Greek crisis, with Albania seeing the largest drop.
• Borrowing Costs: Moderated in some European countries, but U.S. yields are expected to rise, increasing borrowing costs for developing countries.

Employment Trends

• Unemployment: Averaged 24 percent in the region, with declines in the first half of 2013. However, employment growth was not sufficient to significantly reduce unemployment.
• Sectoral Employment: Service sectors saw the most significant employment gains, while industry continued to lose jobs.
• Employment Recovery: The recovery was uneven, with some countries showing more progress than others.

Structural Challenges

• Productivity and Competitiveness: Productivity growth slowed in the past two years, and unit labor costs rose, undermining long-term growth prospects.
• Fiscal and Debt Issues: Structural fiscal rigidities, weak tax bases, and low revenues kept deficits high. Public debt is expected to rise to 45 percent of GDP in 2013.
• NPLs and Financial Sector Reforms: NPLs reached above 20 percent in some countries, necessitating urgent reforms to improve the financial sector's resilience and stability.

Outlook and Risks

• Short-Term Outlook: Growth is expected to remain weak in 2014, at 1.8 percent, due to depressed domestic demand and uncertain export prospects.
• Risks:
  • External: Rising global interest rates, potential tapering of quantitative easing, and the Euro Area's uncertain recovery.
  • Internal: Reform fatigue, fiscal challenges, and slow resolution of NPLs and arrears.
• Long-Term Prospects: Structural reforms are essential for improving productivity, competitiveness, and the investment climate. The region can draw inspiration from the successful transformations of the Baltics, Poland, and the Czech Republic.

Conclusion

The SEE6 region is on a slow path to recovery, with modest economic growth driven by external demand and export performance. However, domestic demand remains weak, and structural challenges in productivity, competitiveness, and the financial sector hinder long-term growth. The report emphasizes the need for continued fiscal discipline, structural reforms, and improved investment climates to ensure sustainable economic development.