2011年-世界发展银行全球_Knowledge_Map_of_the_Virtual_Economy___Converting_the_Virtual_Economy_into_Development_Potential_75页_1mb

Summary of the Knowledge Map of the Virtual Economy

Core Content

This report, Converting the Virtual Economy into Development Potential: Knowledge Map of the Virtual Economy, explores the potential of the virtual economy to contribute to economic and social development, particularly in developing countries. It is part of an infoDev initiative to identify and exploit opportunities in the digital economy.

The virtual economy is defined as a market where digital goods and services are exchanged, often involving artificial scarcity created by platforms to drive demand. This includes activities such as third-party online gaming services and microwork, which offer income opportunities to workers with limited skills and infrastructure.

Main Segments of the Virtual Economy

1. Third-party Online Gaming Services

• Demand and Supply: Players in developed countries seek services to acquire virtual goods, while workers in developing countries provide these services.
• Market Size: Estimated to be worth around $3.0 billion in 2009, with significant contributions from countries like China and Vietnam.
• Business Models: Include retailers, producers, game operators, and supporting activities.
• Regulatory Issues: Concerns about negative externalities, such as the degradation of platform value, and legal challenges in virtual goods trade.
• Case Study: Purchasing World of Warcraft gold through third-party services, highlighting the role of low-skilled workers in harvesting virtual resources.

2. Microwork

• Demand and Supply: Companies like Amazon outsource simple tasks to microworkers in developing countries.
• Market Size: Still emerging, with potential to grow to billions of dollars annually as technology advances.
• Business Models: Transformers, work aggregators, and infrastructure providers.
• Regulatory Issues: Focus on enabling access for unskilled workers, especially through mobile-based platforms.
• Case Study: Using human workers to optimize an online retail search engine, demonstrating the value of microwork in addressing natural digital scarcities.

3. Other Segments

• Cherry Blossoming: Paid-for social media connections to boost brand visibility.
• User-created Virtual Goods: Goods produced by users within virtual environments.

Development Potential

Third-party Gaming Services

• Worker Demographics: Young, low-skilled workers in China and Vietnam.
• Income Distribution: Most revenue is captured in developing countries.
• Costs and Profitability: Lower costs and high scalability.
• Employment: Can employ tens of thousands of workers.
• Competition: Entry barriers are low, but competition is intense.
• Upgrading Strategies: Transition from low-value tasks to higher-value roles in marketing and management.

Microwork

• Worker Demographics: Unskilled workers in countries like India and Kenya.
• Income Distribution: Relatively equitable, with potential for upward mobility.
• Competition: High due to the low skill requirement.
• Upgrading Strategies: Develop software tools to increase value-added services and expand market reach.

Other Segments

• Cherry Blossoming: Limited development potential due to ethical concerns and regulatory challenges.
• User-created Virtual Goods: Offers creative opportunities but requires more infrastructure and market support.

Key Findings and Recommendations

• Market Opportunities: The virtual economy, despite its modest size, can significantly impact local economies.
• Development Potential: Both third-party gaming services and microwork have potential to support local development.
• Interventions: Focus on segments that create positive net social value, such as microwork.
• Recommendations:
  • Enable Demand: Promote the use of microwork services by businesses.
  • Build Capacity: Support the development of microwork infrastructure in developing countries.
  • Upgrade Businesses: Encourage the use of software tools to increase the value of microwork services.
  • Promote New Digital Networks: Invest in mobile broadband to support future virtual economy opportunities.

Methodology

• Value Chain Analysis: Used to understand the flow of value and identify opportunities for upgrading.
• Expert Interviews: Conducted with industry professionals and academics to gather insights.
• Market Size Estimates: Based on both supplier and buyer-side data, including surveys and industry reports.

Conclusion

The virtual economy offers promising development opportunities, particularly in the form of third-party gaming services and microwork. These segments can provide income for unskilled workers and contribute to local ICT infrastructure. However, challenges such as negative externalities and limited regulatory frameworks must be addressed. The report emphasizes the need for targeted interventions to maximize the development potential of the virtual economy.

References and Appendices

• Appendix 1: Sources of uncertainty in gaming services market estimates.
• Appendix 2: Examples of third-party websites selling virtual game currency.

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the virtual economy and its potential to drive development, serving as a foundation for further research and intervention strategies.