加强美国-菲律宾和美国-泰国的伙伴关系（英）-国际战略研究中心-2021.8-27页_455kb

Summary of "Alliances in Need of Upkeep"

Core Content

This report examines the U.S. alliances with the Philippines and Thailand, highlighting the challenges they face in the context of U.S.-China strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific. The authors, Gregory B. Poling, Simon Tran Hudes, and Andreyka Natalegawa, from the CSIS Southeast Asia Program, analyze the current state of these alliances and recommend ways to strengthen them for future security cooperation.

Main Points

U.S.-Philippines Alliance

• Strategic Drift: The alliance has weakened due to shifting political dynamics, including the anti-drug campaign under President Duterte and the U.S. criticism of it.
• Political Tensions: The alliance is in a damage-control mode, with frequent political disputes and uncertainty about the future.
• Security Priorities: Philippine defense planners prioritize terrorism, communist insurgency, and natural disasters, while U.S. strategy emphasizes countering Chinese maritime expansionism.
• Chinese Influence: China has leveraged foreign aid, infrastructure investment, and maritime militia to influence Philippine policies and perceptions.
• Defense Cooperation: The Philippines has taken steps to enhance its defense capabilities through emerging technologies and military training with the U.S. and Japan.
• Gray Zone Challenges: The U.S. and Philippines are unprepared for rapid responses to Chinese gray zone activities in the South China Sea, which require better coordination and pre-arranged strategies.
• Vaccine Diplomacy: The U.S. has been a less visible partner in vaccine donations compared to China, despite the potential for public goodwill through humanitarian assistance.
• Election Impact: The outcome of the 2022 Philippine presidential election could significantly affect the alliance's future trajectory.

U.S.-Thailand Alliance

• Shallow Partnership: The alliance, though long-standing, lacks deep strategic alignment, especially regarding China's rise.
• Economic Focus: Thailand views China's economic expansion as beneficial, while the U.S. emphasizes security and regional stability.
• Strategic Divergence: There is a noticeable divergence in how the U.S. and Thailand perceive China's role and the alliance's purpose.
• Nontraditional Security: The alliance has a strong foundation in nontraditional security areas such as counterterrorism, counternarcotics, and counterproliferation.
• Emerging Technologies: Thailand is interested in acquiring advanced technologies but faces political and public resistance to large-scale procurement.
• ASEAN Role: Thailand's relationships with neighbors, especially post-coup Myanmar, give it regional influence that could be leveraged by the U.S.
• Domestic Politics: Thailand's domestic political instability, particularly the pro-democracy movement, affects its ability to engage in strategic cooperation with the U.S.

Key Findings and Recommendations

• Need for Dialogue: Increased dialogue between U.S. and Southeast Asian experts is essential to strengthen the strategic foundations of these alliances.
• Cooperation on Cybersecurity: The U.S. should standardize cybersecurity support to allies like Thailand to enhance regional security.
• Preparedness for Gray Zone Challenges: The U.S. and its allies need faster response times and a pre-arranged playbook to counter Chinese coercion effectively.
• Military Aid and Procurement: The U.S. can offer military aid to help Thailand overcome procurement challenges and build defense capabilities.
• Rebuilding Trust: U.S. policymakers should work to rebuild trust with Thai elites and demonstrate the benefits of cooperation, rather than framing the alliance solely around China.
• Focus on Shared Values: The alliance should be defined by shared values and interests, not just by strategic competition with China.
• Regional Stability: Strengthening these alliances is crucial for maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific and countering China's influence in the region.

Conclusion

The U.S. alliances with the Philippines and Thailand are vital but underdeveloped in the face of growing Chinese influence. Both countries face internal political challenges and strategic misalignment with the U.S. on key issues. To ensure their effectiveness, the U.S. must prioritize dialogue, enhance cooperation in nontraditional security, and provide support in the form of military aid and technology sharing. These efforts will be essential in maintaining a stable and secure Indo-Pacific region.