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Global Economics Monthly Summary - May 2015

Core Content

The Global Economics Monthly issue from May 2015, authored by Matthew P. Goodman, provides an in-depth analysis of the G7's current role and challenges in the context of global economic and political governance. The G7, consisting of the world's seven largest advanced democracies—United States, Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Canada—is entering its fifth decade, but its influence has diminished over time due to the rise of emerging economies and slow growth within its own members.

Main Points

G7 Summit Overview

• The G7 summit is scheduled to take place in Schloss Elmau, Germany, on June 7-8, 2015.
• The summit will address a wide range of economic and political challenges, including development, climate change, and global security.
• Despite its reduced influence, the G7 remains a key player in international agenda-setting and coordinating responses to global issues.

Upcoming Events

• May 27-29: G7 Finance Ministers' Meeting in Dresden
• June 3: Event on U.S.-India Relationship by CSIS
• June 5: Event on Recent Developments in U.S.-India Relationship by CSIS
• June 7-8: G7 Summit in Schloss Elmau

Economic Challenges

• The G7's share of global GDP has declined from 67% in 1988 to below 50% by 2012.
• Slow growth across the G7 has led to increased focus on domestic issues, reducing its global influence.
• The group is divided on the source of economic growth: demand-side vs. supply-side.
• Germany's current account surpluses have drawn criticism from the U.S., while Germany attributes its success to enterprise competitiveness and structural reforms.
• The G7 is unlikely to resolve the U.S.-Germany divide on economic policy, especially regarding Greece and austerity measures.

China Policy and G7 Division

• The G7 is split into two camps on China policy: Europe (Germany, France, Italy, UK) and the U.S., Canada, Japan.
• Europe focuses on Russia as the main threat, while the other members are more concerned about China's assertiveness in the South China Sea and other regions.
• The AIIB controversy in March 2015 highlighted this divide, with European members supporting the bank, while the U.S. resisted until assurances were given.
• The U.S. may avoid discussing China policy at the summit, but Germany is encouraged to lead the conversation on perceptions of the China challenge.

Key Issues for the Summit

Development and Global Health

• The G7 is expected to focus on global health initiatives, particularly pandemic preparedness and basic health system investment.
• Despite fiscal constraints, there is widespread support for these efforts, especially from the U.S. and Japan.

Climate Change

• The G7 is set to address climate change, with Germany, France, and the U.S. expected to make bold statements.
• The U.S. and EU have already set ambitious CO2 reduction targets, and Japan is expected to announce its own.
• Germany has faced criticism for its reliance on brown coal due to economic and energy security concerns, creating a "climate gap" between its 2020 targets and current performance.

Global Security and Political Issues

• The G7 will likely show unity on global security issues, including:
  • Ukraine: Reiterate support for Minsk agreements and sanctions if Russia does not comply.
  • Syria and Iraq: Address Islamic State threats.
  • Iran: Endorse a comprehensive nuclear deal.
  • Africa: Address conflicts and security challenges.
• Maritime security will also be a topic, as the G7 foreign ministers released a standalone statement on the issue in April 2015.

Conclusion

While the G7 is not the dominant economic force it once was, it continues to play a central role in global governance. The summit in Schloss Elmau will be a critical opportunity for the group to reaffirm its commitment to key issues such as climate change and global security, but it must also address internal divisions over growth strategies and China policy. The G7's ability to mend these fault lines will determine its future relevance and effectiveness in shaping the international agenda.

Author and Publisher

• Author: Matthew P. Goodman, who holds the CSIS Simon Chair in Political Economy.
• Publisher: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focused on international public policy.
• Note: The views expressed are solely those of the author, and CSIS does not take specific policy positions.