2015年-世界发展银行全球_The_Impact_of_the_Global_Financial_Crisis_on_Firms_Capital_Structure_60页_1mb

Summary of "The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Firms' Capital Structure"

Core Content

This working paper analyzes the impact of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on firms' capital structures using a comprehensive dataset of approximately 277,000 firms across 79 countries from 2004 to 2011. The study focuses on how the crisis affected the leverage, long-term debt usage, and debt maturity of firms, particularly distinguishing between publicly listed firms, privately held firms, and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

Main Findings

• General Decline in Capital Structure: The GFC led to a decline in firm leverage, long-term debt financing, and debt maturity across both advanced and developing economies, even in countries not directly affected by a banking crisis.

• Impact on Privately Held Firms and SMEs:

  • Privately held firms, including SMEs, experienced more pronounced declines in leverage and debt maturity compared to publicly listed firms.
  • The decline was especially significant in countries with:
    • Less efficient legal systems
    • Weaker information-sharing mechanisms
    • Shallower banking systems
    • More restrictions on bank entry

• Publicly Listed Firms:

  • These firms showed weaker evidence of significant leverage and debt maturity decline.
  • In some cases, their leverage and debt maturity ratios increased during the crisis.
  • This is attributed to their better access to capital markets and improved transparency, which may act as a "spare tire" during financial stress.

• Institutional and Financial Factors:

  • The study highlights that the institutional environment and financial infrastructure play a crucial role in determining the impact of the crisis on capital structures.
  • Stronger financial systems and institutional frameworks (e.g., credit information sharing, insolvency regimes, investor protection) help mitigate the adverse effects of the crisis.

Key Variables and Definitions

• TDTA (Total Debt to Total Assets): Measures the overall leverage of a firm.
• LTDTA (Long-Term Debt to Total Assets): Reflects the proportion of long-term debt in the firm's capital structure.
• LTDTD (Long-Term Debt to Total Debt): Captures the maturity composition of the firm's debt.

Theoretical Background

• Financial crises increase uncertainty and risk, leading to a preference for short-term financing and a reduction in long-term debt issuance.
• Firms with greater financial flexibility may avoid long-term debt contracts during volatile times.
• In less developed financial systems, the lack of enforceable contracts and reliable information increases the risk of rollover and reduces the availability of long-term financing.

Empirical Approach

• A regression model is used to analyze the evolution of capital structures during the GFC and its aftermath (2008-09 and 2010-11).

• The model includes:

  • Firm-level control variables (e.g., firm size, asset tangibility, growth opportunities, profitability)
  • Time dummies to capture the crisis and post-crisis periods
  • Firm fixed effects to account for time-invariant characteristics
  • Country-level clustering to adjust for common shocks

• Two main models are estimated:

  • Model 2a: Compares the impact of the crisis on SMEs versus large privately held firms.
  • Model 2b: Compares the impact of the crisis on publicly listed firms versus large privately held firms.

Country Determinants

• The paper explores how country-specific institutional and financial characteristics influence the capital structure changes of SMEs and privately held firms.
• Countries with:
  • Less efficient bankruptcy procedures
  • Limited credit information sharing
  • Underdeveloped banking systems
  • More restrictions on bank entry
  • Weak investor rights and rule of law
  • Excessive rollover risks
  • Lower financial flexibility
  • Higher transaction costs
  • Less access to capital markets
  • Higher reliance on bank financing

Experience more severe declines in leverage and debt maturity.

Conclusion

• The GFC had a significant and heterogeneous impact on firms' capital structures, with SMEs and privately held firms being more affected.
• The institutional environment and financial infrastructure are critical in determining how firms adjust their capital structures during crises.
• The findings support the importance of developing robust financial systems and improving legal and regulatory frameworks to enhance firms' resilience and access to financing.

References to Related Literature

• The results are consistent with existing literature on the influence of financial systems and institutional environments on capital structures.
• The paper relates to studies that highlight the role of financial markets and legal frameworks in mitigating the adverse effects of financial crises on corporate financing.

Data Description

• The dataset comes from Orbis, a global firm-level database compiled by Bureau Van Dijk.
• It includes 277,000 firms from 79 countries, with a focus on those that had at least six years of observations.
• The dataset is rich in firm-level characteristics, including asset composition, profitability, and sales-to-assets ratios.

Summary Statistics

• 98.7% of firms are privately held.
• 1.3% are publicly listed.
• 85% of firms with employment data are SMEs.
• On average, firms in the sample have 38% of their assets as fixed assets, 6% ROA, and a sales-to-assets ratio of 150%.
• The average total debt to total assets ratio is 0.34, long-term debt to total assets is 0.09, and long-term debt to total debt is 0.24.

Methodological Notes

• The paper uses a Prais-Winsten estimator to account for first-order serial correlation.
• The model is clustered at the country-year level to address common shocks.
• The study acknowledges that the impact of the crisis differs based on firm size, ownership structure, and country characteristics.

Final Insight

• The findings suggest that improving financial infrastructure and legal systems can help firms, especially SMEs, better withstand financial shocks and maintain stable capital structures.