2016年-数据局_麦肯锡：Urban-World-Global-Consumers-Executive-summary_28页_1mb

Summary of "Urban World: The Global Consumers to Watch" (April 2016)

Core Content

The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) report "Urban World: The Global Consumers to Watch" highlights the evolving dynamics of global consumption, emphasizing that urban areas will be central to economic growth from 2015 to 2030. The report identifies key demographic trends and consumer groups that will shape this growth, urging companies, policymakers, and investors to adapt to these changes.

Main Themes

1. Shift from Population Growth to Per Capita Spending

   • Global consumption growth is increasingly driven by per capita spending rather than population growth.
   • By 2030, per capita consumption growth will account for 75% of total global consumption growth, up from 50% in the early 2000s.
   • Urban areas will dominate this growth, with large cities expected to account for 81% of global consumption and 91% of global consumption growth.

2. Urban Consumers to Watch

   • Nine groups of urban consumers are projected to generate three-quarters of global urban consumption growth from 2015 to 2030.
   • Three of these groups will be responsible for about half of the growth:
     • Developed Retiring and Elderly (60-plus years in developed regions)
     • China's Working-Age Consumers (15–59 years)
     • North America's Working-Age Consumers (15–59 years)
   • These groups will have a significant impact on global consumption patterns due to their size and spending power.

3. Consumption Trends in Cities

   • Cities matter: Urbanization is accelerating, and cities will be the main engines of consumption growth.
   • Concentration of consumption: Just 32 cities are expected to generate 25% of the $23 trillion in urban consumption growth, while 100 cities will account for 45%.
   • Demographic divergence: Some cities are experiencing population decline, while others are growing rapidly. By 2030, over half of the world’s large cities will have fewer young adults than today.

4. Services as a Key Growth Sector

   • Consumption is shifting toward services, especially as populations age and incomes rise in emerging economies.
   • In developed regions, healthcare spending is rising rapidly among the elderly, while in emerging economies, services such as dining out, travel, and education are becoming more prominent.
   • The share of household spending on services increases with rising per capita GDP.

Key Consumer Groups

• Developed Retiring and Elderly (60-plus years in developed regions)

  • Projected to grow by more than one-third (from 164 million to 222 million).
  • Will generate 51% of urban consumption growth in developed countries and 19% of global urban consumption growth.
  • Their per capita consumption is expected to reach $39,000 by 2030, compared to $29,500 for the 30–44 age group.
  • Health-care spending alone is projected to increase by $1.4 trillion by 2030.
  • Their consumption patterns are shifting toward aging in place, leading to higher demand for home improvement and services.

• China's Working-Age Consumers (15–59 years)

  • Expected to grow by 20% (adding 100 million new consumers) and contribute 18% of global urban consumption growth.
  • Their per capita consumption is projected to more than double, from $4,800 to $10,700 annually.
  • These consumers are driving growth in sectors such as personal products, dining out, and travel.
  • Education spending will account for 12.5% of overall consumption growth in China.

• North America's Working-Age Consumers (15–59 years)

  • Already large in number and per capita consumption, expected to grow modestly by 7% and 24%, respectively.
  • Many younger consumers are under income pressure and are cost-conscious in their spending.

Implications for Businesses

• Geography matters: Companies must understand where key consumer groups are located and how their spending behaviors vary.
• Demographic shifts: Businesses need to adapt to changes in age structures, income levels, and life-stage behaviors.
• Complexity management: As consumer groups become more diverse, companies must manage multiple products and channels.
• Service focus: The growing importance of services necessitates a shift in business strategies and investment priorities.

Methodology

• MGI uses a micro-to-macro approach, analyzing age-specific consumption patterns and population projections.
• The analysis combines data from the MGI Global Consumption Model and the Cityscope database.
• The model projects urban consumption growth by age group and region, identifying the top nine consumer groups driving global urban consumption growth.

Conclusion

• The global consumer landscape is shifting, with urban areas and specific demographic groups becoming central to economic growth.
• Businesses must focus on understanding and adapting to these changes to remain competitive and meet the evolving needs of consumers.