20131230-DBS_Group-Faster_growth_in_2014_11页_250kb

报告摘要

Central China Real Estate Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of Central China Real Estate (832 HK), focusing on its financial performance, future outlook, and valuation metrics. The report is issued by DBS Group Research on 30 December 2013 and includes a detailed forecast for the company's performance in 2014.

Main Points

Company Overview: Central China Real Estate is a property development company primarily operating in China. It is part of the Real Estate Holding & Development sector and is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
2013 Performance:
- The company executed its business plan well, achieving Rmb11.7bn in contracted sales in 11 months of 2013, up 35% year-over-year.
- It recorded 93% of its full year sales target of Rmb12.6bn.
- The company obtained presales permits for two high-end projects in 4Q13, with the Tianzhu project launched in December and expected to contribute to sales in January 2014.
- Its market share in Henan province increased to 4.8% in 11M13 from 4.5% in FY12.
2014 Outlook:
- Central China is expected to record faster growth in contracted sales, especially in the second half of the year.
- The company acquired 5.3 million square meters of new land in 11M13, 26% more than FY12, with a total consideration of Rmb3.5bn and an average valuation of Rmb664/sm.
- Zhengzhou accounted for 33% of the total GFA acquired.
- It may have Rmb25-30bn of saleable resources in 2014, which is 19% to 43% higher than FY13's Rmb21bn.
Valuation Metrics:
- The company is currently trading at 4.1x FY14F PE, 66% discount to NAV, and 0.9x P/BV.
- This is compared to the small cap average of 5.2x PE, 69% discount to NAV, and 0.6x P/BV.
- The analysts maintain a BUY recommendation with a price target of HK$3.25 for 12 months.

Key Financial Forecasts

FY Dec (RMB m)	2012A	2013F	2014F	2015F
Turnover	6,346	8,514	12,769	17,129
EBITDA	2,100	2,437	3,127	4,416
Pretax Profit	1,846	2,416	3,167	4,365
Net Profit	823	944	1,135	1,543
Core Profit	779	944	1,135	1,543
EPS (RMB)	0.34	0.39	0.47	0.63
EPS (HK$)	0.43	0.50	0.60	0.81
EPS Growth (%)	13.9	14.5	20.3	35.9
PE (x)	5.6	4.9	4.1	3.0
P/Cash Flow (x)	7.4	2.1	1.5	1.4
EV/EBITDA (x)	3.2	3.1	2.8	2.2
DPS (HK$)	0.13	0.15	0.18	0.24
Div Yield (%)	5.4	6.1	7.4	10.0
Net Gearing (%)	29.3	38.0	44.4	40.6
ROE (%)	16.8	17.2	18.2	21.5
Book Value (HK$)	2.72	3.06	3.48	4.05
P/Book Value (x)	0.9	0.8	0.7	0.6

Valuation Comparison

Company Name	27-Dec Price (HK$)	Mkt Cap (HK$bn)	Recom (US$m)	EPS Growth (%)	PE 14F	PE Yield x
China Overseas*	688 HK	21.8	178.2	49.2	29.84	13
Country Garden*	2007 HK	4.79	88.4	15.2	6.31	30
CR Land*	1109 HK	19.22	112.1	19.5	25.77	22
Evergrande*	3333 HK	2.92	46.9	15.6	3.75	(8)
Longfor	960 HK	11.16	60.7	5.7	n.a.	n.a.
Shimao Property*	813 HK	17.8	61.8	16.4	22.85	30
China Vanke 'B'	200002 CH	11.85	130.5	3.1	NR	n.a.
Agile Property*	3383 HK	8.37	28.9	7.2	10.17	12
COGO*	81 HK	7.4	16.9	3.4	12.05	36
Franshion*	817 HK	2.61	23.9	1.9	3.76	33
Greentown	3900 HK	11.96	25.8	5.0	n.a.	n.a.
Guangzhou R&F	2777 HK	11.38	36.7	7.5	n.a.	n.a.
Hopson Dev	754 HK	9.05	20.3	1.3	n.a.	n.a.
KWG Property	1813 HK	4.11	11.9	3.2	n.a.	n.a.
Poly (Hong Kong)	119 HK	4.14	15.1	5.2	n.a.	n.a.
Shui On Land*	272 HK	2.39	19.1	2.6	2.70	94
Sino-Ocean Land*	3377 HK	5.05	36.8	4.2	4.54	19
Soho China*	410 HK	6.75	34.4	5.8	6.17	(32)
Sunac China	1918 HK	4.59	15.2	8.1	n.a.	n.a.
Yanlord Land^A	YLLG SP	1.215	2.4	0.7	1.24	33
Yuexiu Property*	123 HK	1.89	17.6	4.5	2.51	37
Average (Tier 1)	-	-	-	-	26	27

Company Focus

Market Position: Central China Real Estate is considered a Tier 1 player in the real estate sector.
Valuation: The company is undervalued compared to its NAV and other peers, which supports the BUY recommendation.
Growth Potential: The company is expected to benefit from potential sales pickup in 2014, particularly in the second half.
Dividend Yield: The dividend yield is expected to increase from 5.4% in FY13 to 10.0% in 2015.

Summary

The report highlights that Central China Real Estate is well-positioned for growth in 2014, with a strong execution of its 2013 business plan and a promising outlook for contracted sales. The company is currently trading at a discount to NAV and offers attractive valuations, which support the BUY recommendation. Analysts expect the company to achieve higher sales growth and improved profitability in the coming years, with a projected increase in dividend yield. The company's financial metrics indicate a healthy return on equity and manageable gearing, further supporting its investment potential.

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