2013年-世界发展银行全球_Timor-Leste_Social_Assistance___Public_Expenditure_and_Program_Performance_Report_90页_2mb

Summary of Timor-Leste Social Assistance Public Expenditure and Program Performance Report

Core Content

This report, prepared by the World Bank, provides an in-depth analysis of the social assistance system in Timor-Leste, focusing on its expansion post-2006 crisis, performance in poverty reduction, and the challenges in its implementation and administration. It outlines the current mix of social assistance programs, their budget allocations, targeting mechanisms, and the impact they have on the welfare of the poorest population.

Main Viewpoints

• Post-crisis expansion: Following the 2006 crisis, the Government of Timor-Leste launched several social assistance programs, including cash transfer initiatives for veterans, elderly, disabled individuals, and female-headed households.
• High expenditure levels: Social assistance spending in Timor-Leste is among the highest globally, accounting for 15% of non-oil GDP or 20% of the combined ESI and domestic revenue.
• Fiscal sustainability concerns: The reliance on excess withdrawals from the Petroleum Fund to fund social assistance may lead to its exhaustion by 2026 if economic growth remains below expectations and domestic revenue stays constant.
• Limited impact on poverty reduction: Despite significant spending, the report finds that the welfare impact is low, with only a 5 percentage point reduction in the poverty headcount rate from 40% to 45%.
• Need for a national framework: A comprehensive national social assistance policy framework is necessary to ensure coherence, efficiency, and long-term sustainability.
• Ineffective targeting: The current mix of programs does not reach a significant proportion of the bottom 40% of the population, with 60% of the poorest households excluded from major cash transfer programs.
• Challenges in implementation: Timor-Leste's social assistance system is underdeveloped, with issues in identification, targeting, payment delivery, and information management.

Key Information

Program Overview

• Main programs: Elderly Pension, Disability Pension, Bolsa da Mae (Conditional Cash Transfer), and Veteran Payments.
• Budget allocation: The largest portion (60%) of the social assistance budget is allocated to Veteran Payments, followed by Elderly and Disability Pensions (20%), and Bolsa da Mae (1.6%).
• Impact on poverty: The report highlights that only the Elderly Pension program provides national-level welfare improvement, while others have limited impact.

Vulnerability and Shocks

• Household shocks: Nearly all households (93%) experienced at least one type of shock from 2010 to 2011, including natural disasters, economic disturbances, and health issues.
• Coping strategies: Many households resort to informal coping strategies, such as selling livestock or harvest, rather than relying on social assistance.
• Child malnutrition: Stunting among children under 5 is one of the highest globally, at around 58%, indicating deep-rooted developmental challenges.

Performance Metrics

• Targeting performance: The report notes that while the Elderly Pension and Disability Pension are categorically targeted, Bolsa da Mae uses a proxy means test, which may not be efficient or cost-effective.
• Generosity of transfers: The Bolsa da Mae benefit is only 3% of the average household budget, which is lower than the international standard of 10-15% for CCT programs.
• Equity: The poorest households are not well-represented in the current targeting system, especially those with many children.

Administrative Challenges

• Fragmented systems: Current administrative systems are inefficient and costly, with multiple parallel systems for different programs.
• Identification issues: Use of birth certificates and national electoral cards is problematic due to errors and manipulation. A national ID system is being developed to improve identification and registration.
• Payment delivery: Limited banking infrastructure leads to reliance on armed escorts and mobile banking. Payment frequency and access remain major barriers.
• Information management: A standardized MIS is being developed to improve transparency, efficiency, and error detection across programs.

Recommendations

1. Develop a national social assistance framework: To guide the design and implementation of a more effective and integrated safety net system.
2. Refocus on the poorest households: Implement a single, integrated program targeting the bottom 40% of the population, leveraging the existing Bolsa da Mae structure.
3. Create a unified administrative system: Consolidate and standardize processes such as targeting, enrollment, and payment delivery across all programs.
4. Improve targeting and MIS: Develop a cost-effective and transparent targeting system, and integrate all programs into a single MIS platform.
5. Enhance payment mechanisms: Explore technological solutions for more efficient and secure payment delivery, such as biometric identification and handheld devices.
6. Establish grievance redress systems: Implement systems that allow beneficiaries to file complaints through phone calls, text messages, or other electronic means.
7. Strengthen inter-ministerial coordination: Ensure that all relevant ministries (e.g., MoE, MoF, MTCI) collaborate effectively to support social assistance programs.

Conclusion

While Timor-Leste has made significant strides in expanding its social assistance programs, the current system is not well-aligned with the needs of the poorest population. The report emphasizes the importance of moving towards a more integrated, efficient, and sustainable approach to social assistance, ensuring that it serves as a complementary tool rather than the core strategy for economic development and poverty reduction.