20140522-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_16页_419kb

报告摘要

Daily Edge Summary - 22 May 2014

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the financial performance and market outlook for several key companies in the Philippines, with a focus on the consumer and utility sectors. It includes analyst ratings, financial highlights, and strategic developments for companies such as San Miguel Pure Foods (PF), Pepsi-Cola Products Philippines (PIP), and others. The report also highlights upcoming shareholder meetings and market trends.

Main Points

Market Indicators

PSEi: Closed at 6,762.38, down 1.75% from previous levels.
Turnover: Increased to 9,062.41 PHPm, up 12.97%.
PLDT ADR (USD): Closed at 66.59, up 0.02%.
PLDT ADR (PHP): Closed at 2,915.31, up 0.05%.
Ave interbank rate: 2.00%, down by 3.13 bps.
PHP/USD rate: 43.79, up 0.15%.

Top Idea - Consumer Sector

San Miguel Pure Foods (PF)

1Q14 Net Income: Increased by 43% YoY to PHP570m, reaching 17.7% of full-year forecast.
Key Drivers: Improved margins in agro-industrial and flour milling segments.
Segment Performance:
- Agro-industrial: Net sales up 8.3% to PHP16.44b, operating income up 81.7% to PHP513m.
- Flour milling: Net sales up 7.1% to PHP2.279b, operating income up 39% to PHP587m.
Valuation: 12.4x PER for 2014F, which is undemanding compared to the sector average.
Recommendation: Reiterate BUY with a target price of PHP310.

Market Talk - Key Highlights

CEB (Philippine Airlines)

Core Net Profit: PHP403m in 1Q14, down 60.2% YoY but up 80.4% QoQ.
Market Share: Domestic market share increased to 51.5%, a 1.7ppt rise from 2013.
Strategic Development: Gained from competitors' restructuring and improved yields.
Recommendation: Maintain BUY with a target price of PHP62.5.

PIP (Pepsi-Cola Products Philippines Inc)

1Q14 Net Income: Declined 50% YoY to PHP136m, representing 13% of full-year forecast.
Volume Growth: Up 11% YoY, driven by CSD (carbonated soft drinks) growth.
Cost Pressures: Higher depreciation and amortization impacted margins.
Price Hike: Increased ASP (average selling price) for 8-oz Pepsi-Cola to match RC Cola's price increase.
Recommendation: Keep BUY rating, as the company is expected to catch up with its full-year forecast.

Banks

BPI: Declared PHP0.90 cash dividend per share, translating to a 2.1% yield.
SECB: Approved to issue up to PHP10b in Tier 2 notes, increasing Tier 2 ratio by more than 300bps and boosting capital adequacy ratio to 18% in FY14.

Conglomerates

Ayala Corp (AC): Selected SEPC for the Kauswagan thermal plant, with construction set to begin in 4Q14.

Utilities

MER (Manila Electric Co): Applied for a lower MAP (maximum average price) for RY2015, which could reduce revenue by PHP2.3b.
FGEN: Increased voting interest in EDC to 50.7%, through the purchase of 31m shares from Lopez Inc Retirement Fund.

Key Information

Financial Highlights for PF (San Miguel Pure Foods)

Revenue: PHP24.2b in 1Q14, up 5% YoY.
Operating Profit: PHP1.335b, up 45.7% YoY.
Gross Profit Margin: Improved to 18.8% from 18.3%.
Net Profit Margin: Improved to 12.5% from 9.5%.
EPS (Earnings Per Share): PHP19.28 for 2014F, up 10.9% YoY.
PER (Price-to-Earnings Ratio): 12.5x for 2014F, undemanding compared to sector average.

Financial Highlights for PIP (Pepsi-Cola Products Philippines Inc)

Net Sales: PHP5.488b in 1Q14, up 7.7% YoY.
Gross Profit: PHP1.292b, down 5.9% YoY.
Operating Profit: PHP3.4% in 1Q14.
Net Profit: PHP136m in 1Q14, down 50% YoY.
EPS: PHP0.28 for 2014F.
PER: 16.9x for 2014F.
EPS Growth: 12.7% for 2014F.

Market Outlook

CEB: Industry consolidation and restructuring have created a better yield outlook, with forward booking showing positive signs.
El Niño: Expected to impact raw material prices, but PIP and PF are likely to mitigate this through higher selling prices and increased cassava usage.
Natural Calamities: Continued to have a dampening effect on demand in the Visayas region, but this is expected to subside.

Upcoming Events

23 May: Union Bank of the Philippines, Pacific Online Systems Corporation, Splash Corporation Annual Stockholder's Meetings.
24 May: Philippine Stock Exchange, Inc. Annual Stockholder's Meeting.
26 May: First Philippine Holdings Corporation, Anchor Land Holdings, Inc. Annual Stockholder's Meetings.
27 May: Philippine National Bank, Citystate Savings Bank, Inc., Manila Electric Company Annual Stockholder's Meetings.
28 May: Liberty Flour Mills, Inc., Rockwell Land Corporation, Benguet Corporation, Keppel Philippine Holdings, Inc. Annual Stockholder's Meetings.

Valuation Table (as of 21 May 2014)

Stock	Share Price (PHP)	Target Price (PHP)	Upside (%)	Rec	Year	Net Profit (PHPm)	EPS Growth (%)	PE (x)	DPS (PHP)	Yield (%)	BV/share (PHP)	P/BV (x)	Net Gearing (%)	ROA (%)	ROE (%)
BDO	87.10	93.50	7	HOLD	2012	14,153	4.52	16.2	19.3	-	42.29	2.1	-	1.2	11.7
BPI	87.80	93.50	6	HOLD	2013	16,352	4.60	26.8	19.1	2.30	27.19	3.2	-	1.8	17.8
CHIB	55.05	60.00	9	HOLD	2014	5,479	3.45	16.0	1.20	1.2	38.24	2.2	-	1.1	11.9
EW	30.70	31.80	4	HOLD	2014	2,661	2.36	13.0	-	-	15.36	1.5	-	1.9	15.6
MBT	86.00	92.00	7	HOLD	2014	15,219	5.54	15.5	-	-	58.04	1.6	-	1.4	11.9
PBB	23.40	29.00	24	BUY	2014	925	2.69	8.7	-	-	15.36	1.8	-	1.9	15.6
PNB	91.00	109.00	20	BUY	2014	1,004	2.69	8.7	-	-	18.51	1.1	-	1.4	15.6

Analysts

Luz Lorenzo: Head of Research / Economist, contact: (632) 849 8836, email: luz_lorenzo@maybank-atrke.com
Laura Dy-Liacco: Contact: (632) 849 8840, email: laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com
Rommel Rodrigo: Contact: (632) 849 8839, email: rommel_rodrigo@maybank-atrke.com
Lovell Sarreal: Contact: (632) 849 8841, email: lovell_sarreal@maybank-atrke.com
Katherine Tan: Contact: (632) 849 8843, email: kat_tan@maybank-atrke.com
Ramon Adviento: Contact: (63) 28498845, email: ramon_adviento@maybank-atrke.com