20150814-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_15页_893kb

报告摘要

Daily Edge Summary - August 14, 2015

Core Content

This document provides a financial overview and analysis of various Philippine companies as of August 13, 2015. It includes stock performance data, analyst insights, and forecasts for several conglomerates and sectors, with a focus on earnings, growth, and valuation metrics.

Key Financial Data

Company	Price (PHP)	% Chg
PSEi	7,439.80	-0.74
Turnover (PHPm)	8,045.56	+2.59
PLDT ADR (USD)	57.48	-0.42
PLDT ADR (PHP)	2,652.70	-0.65
Ave interbank rate	2.50	0 bps
PHP/USD rate	46.13	+0.18

Analysts

Luz Lorenzo: Head of Research / Economist
Ramon Adviento: (63) 28498845
Michael Bengson: (63) 28498840
Rommel Rodrigo: (632) 849 8839
Lovell Sarreal: (632) 849 8841
Katherine Tan: (632) 849 8843

Top Idea: Ayala Corp (AC)

Target Price: PHP923.00
Rating: BUY (Unchanged)
Earnings Update: Net income for 2Q15 increased by 26% YoY to PHP5.4b, driven by growth in income contributions from Ayala Land, IMI, and GLO.
AC Energy: Net income grew significantly in 1H15, with four projects contributing to profit.
Target NAV and TP: Maintained at PHP1,014/sh and PHP923.
Profit Target: On track to meet 2015 profit target of PHP20b.
Earnings Forecast: Expected to grow by 15% in 2015 and 20% in 2016, driven by ALI, GLO, and unlisted subsidiaries.
Growth Opportunities: Identified in healthcare and education with investments in Generika and the University of Nueva Caceres.

Market Highlights

MEG (PHP4.52)

Rating: BUY (Unchanged)
1H15 Net Profit: Increased by 12.5% YoY to PHP5.4b, in line with estimates.
Real Estate Sales: Rose by 12% YoY to PHP16.4b, with McKinley Hill and Uptown Bonifacio as main contributors.
Recurring Revenue: Grew by 22% YoY to PHP4.2b, supported by higher escalation rates.
Consolidated GPM: Improved to 46% from 44% in 1H14, driven by GERI's high margin.
Target Revenue: PHP9b, with potential upside of 50%.
Key Data:
- Revenue: PHP32,362.5M (FY13A), PHP34,071.6M (FY14A), PHP42,362.5M (FY15E), PHP49,118.3M (FY16E), PHP55,883.1M (FY17E)
- Core Net Profit: PHP9,013.8M (FY13A), PHP9,399.0M (FY14A), PHP11,044.6M (FY15E), PHP12,888.7M (FY16E), PHP14,647.9M (FY17E)
- Core P/E: 17.0 (FY13A), 16.3 (FY14A), 13.9 (FY15E), 11.9 (FY16E), 10.5 (FY17E)
- P/BV: 1.5 (FY13A), 1.2 (FY14A), 1.1 (FY15E), 1.0 (FY16E), 0.9 (FY17E)

VLL (PHP7.00)

Rating: BUY (Unchanged)
1H15 Net Profit: Increased by 10.0% YoY to PHP3.1b, in line with estimates.
Real Estate Revenues: Rose by 10.6% YoY to PHP110.0b, with Camella and Communities Philippines contributing 73% of consolidated revenues.
Sales Take-up: 9.5% in 1H15, in line with industry growth.
Gross Margin: Sustained at 50.7%.
Operating Expenses: Increased by 14.6% YoY, faster than revenue growth.
Target Price: PHP8.40, with 50% upside.
Key Data:
- Revenue: PHP21,601.2M (FY13A), PHP24,017.9M (FY14A), PHP25,580.3M (FY15E), PHP27,583.9M (FY16E), PHP29,639.9M (FY17E)
- Core Net Profit: PHP5,105.2M (FY13A), PHP5,689.7M (FY14A), PHP6,001.4M (FY15E), PHP6,765.1M (FY16E), PHP7,809.9M (FY17E)
- Core EPS: PHP0.60 (FY13A), PHP0.67 (FY14A), PHP0.70 (FY15E), PHP0.79 (FY16E), PHP0.91 (FY17E)
- Core P/E: 12.2 (FY13A), 10.9 (FY14A), 10.4 (FY15E), 9.2 (FY16E), 8.0 (FY17E)
- P/BV: 1.3 (FY13A), 1.2 (FY14A), 1.1 (FY15E), 1.0 (FY16E), 0.9 (FY17E)

FLI (PHP)

Rating: BUY (Unchanged)
1H15 Net Income: PHP2.32b, 15.5% higher YoY.
Recurring Revenues: Building up with PHP1.2b in rental income, up 14% YoY.
Office Rental Growth: 23% YoY to PHP729m.
Real Estate Sales: Rose by 8.4% YoY to PHP6.6b.
Key Launches: Studio 7 in Quezon City and Enclave Alabang in Daang Hari.
GPM: Improved to 41.6% from 40.8% in 1H14 due to mid-rise buildings.
Target Price: PHP2.40, with potential upside.
Key Data:
- Revenue: PHP12,512.0M (FY13A), PHP15,465.6M (FY14A), PHP15,751.7M (FY15E), PHP18,478.1M (FY16E), PHP21,139.6M (FY17E)
- Core Net Profit: PHP3,976.0M (FY13A), PHP4,602.3M (FY14A), PHP5,267.2M (FY15E), PHP6,947.8M (FY16E), PHP8,131.4M (FY17E)
- Core EPS: PHP0.16 (FY13A), PHP0.19 (FY14A), PHP0.22 (FY15E), PHP0.29 (FY16E), PHP0.34 (FY17E)
- Core P/E: 11.9 (FY13A), 10.3 (FY14A), 9.0 (FY15E), 6.8 (FY16E), 5.8 (FY17E)

Other Highlights

GTCAP

1H15 Net Income: Grew 42% YoY to PHP5.6b.
Consolidated Revenues: Increased 12% YoY to PHP74.3b, driven by robust vehicle sales.
Toyota Motor Philippines (TMP): Net income surged 69% YoY to PHP5.1b, with 19% growth in vehicle sales to 57,717 units.
Metrobank (MBT): Core net earnings rose 30% YoY to PHP9.3b on 14% loan growth and improved NIM of 3.6%.
Global Business Power: Net income expanded 26% YoY to PHP1.2b.
Federal Land: Net profit fell 4% YoY to PHP690m despite revenue growth.
AXA Philippines: Profits rose 27% YoY to PHP710m, driven by 56% rise in total premium income.
Philippine Business Bank (PBB): 1H15 net earnings up 16.2% YoY to PHP300m.
Energy Development Corporation (EDC): 1H15 net income dipped to PHP4.7b (-14% YoY) due to plant outages and higher expenses.
Puregold Price Club Inc (PGOLD): 1H15 net income up 21% YoY to PHP2b, with 40% of full-year forecast.
Ayala Land Inc (ALI): Acquired 51.36% of POPI for PHP5.6b, which owns Tutuban Center.

The Week Ahead

Earnings and Valuations Table (as of 13 August 2015):
- BDO: Target Price PHP123.00, Upside 19%, Rating BUY.
- BPI: Target Price PHP94.00, Upside 2%, Rating HOLD.
- CHIB: Target Price PHP47.00, Upside 9%, Rating HOLD.
- EW: Target Price PHP27.00, Upside 30%, Rating BUY.
- MBT: Target Price PHP100.00, Upside 15%, Rating BUY.
- PBB: Target Price PHP18.00, Upside -4%, Rating HOLD.

Summary of Key Insights

AC: On track to meet 2015 profit target, with significant growth from AC Energy and other subsidiaries.
MEG: Benefits from consolidation, with strong recurring revenue growth and improved margins.
VLL: Maintains steady results, with plans to re-price Daang Hari projects and increase recurring revenue.
FLI: Building up recurring revenues, with positive outlook on office and retail GLA expansion.
GTCAP and TMP: Strong performance with notable increases in net income and vehicle sales.
EDC and PGOLD: Facing challenges but showing potential for recovery and growth.
Market Outlook: Analysts suggest continued growth in the real estate and consumer sectors, with caution in the banking and utilities segments.