韩国2035可再生能源目标-69页_5mb

Introduction

Background:
This report explores the possibility of transitioning South Korea's electricity generation system to a clean energy mix of 80% by 2035, examining economic feasibility, grid reliability, and policy implications.

Analysis Context:
South Korea currently imports 90% of its energy, and at least 39% of electricity is generated using fossil fuels. The roadmap must address constraints in electricity demand growth while leveraging the declining costs of solar, wind, and battery storage technologies.

Methodology

Model:
PLEXOS capacity expansion and production cost models were used to simulate generation mix and inter-regional transmission investments between 2022 and 2050, including sensitivity analyses.

Assumptions:

• RE and storage technology cost trajectories based on National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) projections
• Fuel prices based on 2022–2035 trends (base or high fuel price scenarios)
• Grid reliability ensured via operational reserves and energy storage

Key Findings

Transition to Clean Energy by 2035

• An 80% clean electricity grid is achievable by 2035, phasing out more than half of current coal capacity without building new fossil fuel plants.
• South Korea can deploy 43 GW of renewable energy and 13.3 GW of energy storage beyond current policy goals by 2035, representing a 31% increase in clean capacity.

Economic and Environmental Benefits

• Electricity supply costs in 2035 are ~2% lower in the clean energy scenario compared to current policy.
• Dramatic reduction in emissions:
  • CO₂: up to 76% decrease from 2022 levels;
  • PM2.5 emissions: reduction by approximately 69%.

Grid Reliability and Energy Security

• A fully automated grid can sustain peak demand (e.g., 12 GW demand shock) with available generation mix (including nuclear and natural gas).
• Exports dominate renewable resources in southern regions (e.g., Jeonnam, busan/Ulsan) to balance demand in the central metropolitan area.
• Reduced dependence on imported fossil fuels by 61.5% of current costs.

Policy Recommendations

1. Deployment Targets: Increase clean energy (wind, solar, energy storage) deployment goals in the 11th Basic Plan to 80% by 2035.
2. Policy Instruments: Establish an 80% clean electricity standard and deploy supporting market redesign to accelerate adoption of green technologies like offshore wind and battery storage.
3. Barrier Removal: Address transmission constraints, land use issues, and grid management to support rapid renewable expansion.

Conclusion

South Korea can successfully decarbonize its electricity sector by 2035 at little economic cost while improving grid manageability and shifting toward energy independence. Strong near-term policy action is necessary to overcome existing barriers to renewable expansion strategies.