2015年-世界发展银行全球_Russia_Monthly_Economic_Developments_August_2015_3页_1mb

Russia Monthly Economic Developments - August 2015 Summary

Core Content

August 2015 marked a period of continued economic contraction in Russia, with a slowdown in the pace of decline compared to the previous months. The economy faced significant challenges due to falling oil prices, a weakened ruble, and domestic economic pressures. Despite these issues, some stabilization in key areas was observed, particularly in the financial and credit sectors.

Main Economic Indicators

• GDP Contraction:
  Russia's economy contracted by 4.6% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2015, following a 2.2% contraction in the first quarter. This remains in line with World Bank projections and analyst forecasts.

  • Real GDP declined by 3.3% in the first half of the year.
  • Consumption dropped more than expected due to a sharp fall in real incomes and wages.

• Industrial Output:

  • Industrial output contraction slowed in June to -4.8% compared to -5.5% in May.
  • Manufacturing output decreased by 6.6% in June, slightly better than the -7.2% in May.
  • Key sub-industries like machine building and transportation continued to experience double-digit contractions.

• Consumer Demand and Inflation:

  • Retail trade fell by 9.4% in June, year-on-year.
  • Real wage contraction levelled at -7.2% in June, compared to -10% in March-April and -7.4% in May.
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 15.6% in July, driven by a 3% jump in service prices due to a 8.2% increase in utility tariffs.
  • Core inflation decelerated slightly to 16.5% in July from 16.7% in June.

• Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy:

  • The ruble depreciated to its lowest level since February 2015, with a 5% monthly depreciation in July and an additional 6% in August.
  • The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) stopped its daily purchases of foreign currency reserves on July 29 and cut key policy rates by 50 basis points to 11%, after a 100 basis points cut in June.

Trade and Balance of Payments

• Trade Balance:

  • Russia's trade balance weakened to US$44.1 billion in the second quarter, compared to US$51.7 billion a year earlier.
  • Current account improved to US$19.2 billion from US$12.1 billion in the first quarter, due to higher investment income and services balance.

• Capital Flows:

  • Net capital outflows decreased to US$15.3 billion in the second quarter, from US$23.3 billion in the first quarter.

Budget and Fiscal Outlook

• Federal Budget Deficit:

  • The federal budget recorded a deficit of 2.6% of GDP in the first half of 2015, compared to a 1.9% surplus a year earlier.
  • Oil and gas revenues dropped to 8.6% of GDP from 11.0% in the first half of 2014.
  • Non-oil revenues remained nearly unchanged at 10.6% of GDP.

• Expenditure:

  • Federal budget expenditure increased by 17% in nominal terms to 21.8% of GDP in January-June 2015.
  • Military spending rose by 1.5% of GDP and social policy spending by 1.0% of GDP.

Poverty and Social Indicators

• Poverty Levels:
  • Preliminary poverty statistics for the first quarter of 2015 showed an increase in the number of poor people to 22.9 million (15.9% of the population), compared to 19.8 million (13.8%) in the first quarter of 2014.
  • The World Bank estimated that the seasonally adjusted poverty level also increased, reaching 2010 levels.

Global Economic Context

• Global Demand and Supply:

  • Weak global demand and a persistent supply glut led to oil prices falling by almost 10% in July.
  • Oil prices reached US$46 per barrel in early August, close to the lowest January levels.
  • OPEC output rose to over 31 million barrels per day, the highest since 2008.
  • U.S. drilling rig count increased by 36 rigs to 664 in July.

• Export Challenges:

  • Global demand for Russian exports remained weak, with China's economic activity slowing and the strong dollar negatively impacting export competitiveness.
  • Global equity flows declined due to a sharp drop in flows to China, reflecting concerns over a potential disorderly correction.

Financial Sector Developments

• Credit and Deposits:

  • Credit to firms increased slightly in June to 20.7% year-on-year, compared to 18.4% in May.
  • Credit to households slowed to 0.8% year-on-year, down from 2.4% in May.
  • Deposits grew by 2.6% in June, with ruble deposits increasing by 1.6%.

• Credit Risk:

  • Credit risk stabilized in June, with non-performing loans (NPLs) to households at 7.5% and to non-financial organizations at 5.9%.

• Banking Sector:

  • The CBR revoked licenses from 27 banks (mostly in Moscow) due to overly-risky credit activities, suspicious operations, and low capital adequacy.

Conclusion

August 2015 was characterized by a slowdown in economic contraction, weakened ruble, and rising inflation. While the current account improved and credit risk stabilized, domestic demand remained weak, and poverty levels increased. The CBR's cautious monetary policy and external economic pressures continued to constrain growth.