战略与国际研究中心-US-Alliances-and-Emerging-Partnerships-in-Southeast-Asia_97页_1mb

U.S. Alliances and Emerging Partnerships in Southeast Asia: Summary

Core Content

This report, authored by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), examines the state of U.S. bilateral relationships with six Southeast Asian countries: Thailand, the Philippines, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam. It assesses the health of these partnerships and offers recommendations for the Obama administration to enhance U.S. engagement and influence in the region.

Main Points

U.S. Strategic Interest in Southeast Asia

• Southeast Asia is a region of 550 million people, the world's largest Muslim population, and a $1 trillion economy.
• It holds strategic waterways and is crucial to the U.S. as an Asia-Pacific power.
• U.S.-Southeast Asia trade exceeds $200 billion annually, with cumulative investment over $100 billion.
• The region is expected to play a critical role in shaping the future of Asia.

Key Bilateral Relationships

• Thailand and the Philippines: U.S. treaty allies with strong historical ties.
• Singapore: A reliable security partner, though not officially an ally.
• Malaysia: A strong but quiet security partner.
• Indonesia and Vietnam: Emerging partnerships with significant potential for growth.

Regional Dynamics

• Southeast Asian nations generally support U.S. bilateral relationships, but desire more U.S. engagement.
• There is concern over the Obama administration's focus on "change" and potential human rights issues.
• Southeast Asian countries welcome increased engagement with China and Japan, but remain cautious about military implications.
• They seek balance in U.S. foreign policy, especially regarding the Middle East and Iraq War.
• They want no single power to dominate the region and prefer multi-polar engagement.

Key Recommendations

• Reinvigorate U.S. engagement with traditional allies Thailand and the Philippines to test strategic convergence.
• Cultivate deeper relationships with emerging powers like Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam.
• Ensure that bilateral and minilateral relationships complement U.S. commitment to ASEAN and regional frameworks.
• Engage regularly at regional institutions at the appropriate level.
• Focus on economic cooperation with leading Southeast Asian nations as a core element of promoting regional and bilateral relations.

Country-Specific Insights

Thailand

• Historical Context: The U.S.-Thailand relationship dates back to the Treaty of Amity and Commerce (1833), the oldest U.S. treaty in Asia.
• Strategic Importance: Thailand has been a key U.S. ally and security partner, especially during the Vietnam War.
• Current Challenges: Political instability, economic disputes, and military coups have affected the relationship.
• Key Issues: Nontraditional security threats such as narcotics trafficking and HIV/AIDS have become central to U.S.-Thailand cooperation.
• Recommendations:
  • Maintain a neutral stance on Thailand's domestic politics.
  • Strengthen strategic dialogue with Thailand's defense sector.
  • Focus soft power efforts on the younger generation.
  • Leverage Thailand's leadership in ASEAN to enhance U.S.-ASEAN ties.
  • Pay attention to mainland Southeast Asia dynamics, including Mekong River development and security of smaller states.

Philippines

• Historical Context: The U.S.-Philippines alliance has been longstanding and robust, with a treaty alliance since 1946.
• Current Status: The alliance is in good health, providing significant benefits to the U.S..
• Key Issues: Concerns over U.S. military presence, corruption, and regional security.
• Recommendations:
  • Reinvigorate the alliance to promote strategic convergence.
  • Address mutual concerns regarding security and economic cooperation.

Singapore

• Historical Context: Not an official U.S. ally, but a reliable security partner.
• Current Status: Strong bilateral relations with the U.S., especially in security and trade.
• Key Issues: Perceived lack of U.S. attention to the region.
• Recommendations:
  • Strengthen engagement in regional frameworks.
  • Deepen strategic dialogue to address shared interests.

Indonesia

• Historical Context: A strategic partner with a long-standing relationship with the U.S.
• Current Status: Sound and growing, with great potential for future development.
• Key Issues: Balancing U.S. and Chinese influence, economic cooperation, and nontraditional security.
• Recommendations:
  • Cultivate deeper ties with Indonesia.
  • Engage in ASEAN-led frameworks to enhance regional influence.

Malaysia

• Historical Context: A quiet but strong security partner.
• Current Status: Positive and growing, with potential for further development.
• Key Issues: Balancing U.S. and Chinese influence, economic cooperation, and nontraditional security.
• Recommendations:
  • Deepen the partnership.
  • Engage in ASEAN-led frameworks to enhance regional influence.

Vietnam

• Historical Context: A newly developing partnership since the early 2000s.
• Current Status: Positive and growing, with significant interest in regional engagement.
• Key Issues: Economic and security cooperation, historical tensions, and regional dynamics.
• Recommendations:
  • Cultivate broader relationships with Vietnam.
  • Engage in ASEAN-led frameworks to enhance regional influence.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that the U.S. is in a strong position in Southeast Asia, with a reservoir of goodwill. It highlights the need for a comprehensive and integrated strategic approach to sustain and enhance U.S. influence in the region. The Obama administration has made a positive start, but persistence and follow-through are necessary to avoid disappointment and missed opportunities.

The report serves as a resource for policymakers, analysts, and students of Southeast Asian affairs, and is intended to spur further investigation into U.S. policy in the region.