战略与国际研究中心-Southeast-Asia-Bulletin-April-2008_5页_610kb

Southeast Asia Bulletin Summary

Core Content

The CSIS Southeast Asia Initiative, launched in January 2008, aims to enhance the focus on Southeast Asian affairs within Washington's policy community. It facilitates regular roundtables, conferences, studies, and forums to analyze regional developments and foster partnerships with both domestic and international stakeholders.

The Southeast Asia Bulletin, a monthly publication of the initiative, provides timely overviews of key developments and includes short essays by commentators on regional issues.

Main Views and Key Information

Why the U.S. Should Sign the TAC

• The Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), signed by ASEAN in 1976 and amended in 1987 to allow non-ASEAN states to join, is seen as a symbol of peaceful dispute resolution.
• Washington's past reluctance to sign the TAC stemmed from two concerns:
  1. Military concerns: The TAC's non-interference and renunciation of force clauses were perceived as potentially limiting U.S. military operations, including the deployment of nuclear weapons.
  2. Senate ratification: The U.S. Senate, particularly with its legal community, was thought to be hostile to the TAC's broad, non-binding language.
• However, current conditions have changed, and the U.S. has a stronger interest in the region due to the rise of China and the need to reassert its influence in East Asian security and political forums.
• Accession to the TAC would symbolize respect for ASEAN and improve U.S. standing in the East Asian Summit (EAS) process, which is the only forum for multilateral security and political dialogue in the region.
• The TAC does not constrain U.S. security or policy options, as evidenced by its similarity to the Kellogg-Briand Treaty. It does not affect U.S. alliances, military deployments, or the use of force in the region.
• Other countries, including Australia, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand, have already signed the TAC, and China, India, Russia, and New Zealand are also parties. The U.S. should follow suit to align with these partners.

Recent Regional Developments

• Thailand:
  • Held its first senatorial elections since the 2006 coup, with Thaksin allies gaining significant traction.
  • Reshuffled its military, moving coup-linked officers to ceremonial roles and reassigning loyalists to key positions.
  • Announced a reshuffle of its military structure.
• Vietnam:
  • A U.S. serviceman attended a high-level military training course in Hanoi.
  • Plans to launch its first satellites in April to meet growing telecommunications demands.
• Malaysia:
  • The Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition lost control of five of its thirteen states in the March 8 elections, marking a major political shift.
  • UMNO (the dominant party in BN) faced internal challenges, including a political crisis over the king's rejection of a cabinet nominee.
  • The New Economic Policy (NEP), a pro-Malay affirmative action policy, came under pressure as opposition parties, led by Anwar Ibrahim, gained control of five states and pushed for more equitable economic policies.
• Cambodia and Thailand:
  • Announced plans to negotiate joint development areas for oil and gas reserves along their shared territory.
• Burmese Politics:
  • Aung San Suu Kyi met with UN special envoy Ibrahim Gambari, while the Burmese junta refused to engage with him.
  • The junta also rejected Gambari's proposal for international observers to monitor a constitutional referendum.
• Indonesia:
  • The Human Rights Commission began investigating human rights abuses from the Suharto era.
• Rice Crisis:
  • Rising rice prices, driven by demand from China and supply issues due to droughts and poor harvests, have impacted food security in Indonesia and the Philippines.
  • Export nations like India, Vietnam, and Egypt have imposed export controls to secure domestic supplies.
  • The crisis has intensified public dissatisfaction in these countries, particularly with governments perceived as failing to manage economic challenges.

Events to Watch in April 2008

• 12th ASEAN Finance Ministers Meeting (AFMM) in Da Nang, Vietnam (April 3–4)
• ASEAN-U.S. Informal Coordinating Mechanism Meeting in Singapore (April 10–11)
• 10th ASEAN-India Senior Officials Meeting (SOM) in Bali, Indonesia (April 23–25)

Other Projects and Reports

The CSIS International Security Program's Asia Group has published several reports and projects, including:

• Assessing Contemporary China: An analysis of China's geopolitical role.
• U.S.-China Dialogue on North Korea: A discussion on internal developments in North Korea.
• U.S.-China Strategic Nuclear Dynamics: Examines nuclear relations between the U.S. and China.
• The K-Factor: Explores Korean-American attitudes and their impact on U.S.-Korea policy.
• Congressional Attitudes and the Future of the U.S.-ROK Alliance: Analyzes the future of the U.S.-South Korea alliance.
• Bridging Strategic Asia: Looks at India's rise and its implications for the U.S.-Japan alliance.
• March Issue of the Southeast Asia Bulletin: Available for in-depth analysis of U.S.-Southeast Asia relations.

CSIS Southeast Asia Events in March 2008

• March 20: Thai Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama participated in the Statesmen's Forum Series, discussing Thai-U.S. relations in the context of Southeast Asia's evolving landscape.
• March 31: John Virgoe, Director of Southeast Asia at the International Crisis Group, engaged in a roundtable with Washington-based analysts on Southeast Asia issues.

Miscellaneous Southeast Asia Facts

• Brunei's Sultan, Hassanal Bolkiah, owned a large number of luxury vehicles as of October 2007.
• Over 25 million Southeast Asians are of Chinese ethnicity, with significant populations in Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia.
• Puncak Jaya, in Indonesian Papua, is the highest peak between the Himalayas and the Andes, though its glaciers are rapidly retreating.
• King Bhumibol Adulyadej of Thailand is the world's longest-reigning monarch, having ascended the throne in 1946.
• Singapore is the most densely populated country in the world, with over 6,430 people per square kilometer, second only to Monaco.