世界发展银行-Rebuilding-Tourism-Competitiveness-_-Tourism-Response,-Recovery-and-Resilience-to-the-COVID-19-Crisis_48页_4mb

Summary of "Rebuilding Tourism Competitiveness" (July 2020)

Core Content

The report "Rebuilding Tourism Competitiveness" analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the travel and tourism industry, highlighting the sector-wide disruptions, country-specific vulnerabilities, and policy responses to support recovery. It outlines a three-phase approach for stakeholders to address the challenges posed by the crisis, emphasizing the need for structured and adaptive strategies to ensure resilience and sustainability in the post-pandemic era.

Main Points

1. Global Context and Current Impact

• The travel and tourism industry was one of the first sectors to be severely affected by the pandemic.
• Global travel and tourism revenues have nearly tripled since 2000, contributing 10.4% of global GDP and providing one out of every 10 jobs worldwide.
• By mid-April 2020, international travel had effectively stopped.
• The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) estimated a potential 30% drop in global travel in 2020.
• 100 million jobs are at risk, with a potential global loss of up to $2.7 trillion in 2020.
• Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs), which account for 80% of tourism-related businesses, are at greater risk of failure due to limited financial resources and less capacity to adapt.

2. Sector Impacts and Country Vulnerabilities

• Aviation:

  • Passenger flights have plummeted globally, with international flights hit hardest.
  • Airlines are facing severe cash flow pressure, with many approaching technical bankruptcy.
  • Developed countries and state-owned airlines are more resilient due to better financial buffers and access to credit.
  • Privately-owned airlines in developing countries and budget carriers are extremely vulnerable.
  • Consolidation and vertical integration are likely, with long-term implications on prices and service quality.

• Accommodation and Lodging:

  • Hotel revenues have collapsed, with some reporting losses worse than 9/11 and the GFC.
  • Occupancy rates are below 20% in many countries.
  • Peer-to-Peer (P2P) accommodation may recover faster due to lower operating costs.
  • P2P operators face uncertainty in revenue and employment protections.

• Tour Operators:

  • Global tour operators are experiencing unprecedented stress.
  • SMEs in emerging economies are most vulnerable, especially those reliant on international long-haul travel.
  • Example from Tanzania shows a 66% revenue loss in six months and significant job losses if travel does not restart by August.

• Cruise Operators:

  • The cruise sector is heavily impacted due to high passenger density and vulnerable demographics.
  • Major outbreaks on cruise ships between February and March 2020 led to 800 confirmed cases.
  • The sector is a major economic contributor in some Pacific islands, such as Vanuatu.
  • Consolidation is expected, which may reduce service diversity and increase prices.

3. Country Impacts and Vulnerabilities

• Tourism-dependent countries, such as small island states and lower and lower-middle income countries, are more vulnerable.
• Resilience is influenced by:
  • Local policy environment
  • Public health policies
  • ICT readiness
  • Government tourism policies
  • Tourist service infrastructure
• Countries with strong domestic tourism markets or regional 'travel bubbles' are likely to recover faster.
• Dependence on China, Europe, and the U.S. increases vulnerability to global market shocks.

4. Policy Responses

• Governments have employed various support mechanisms, including:
  • Debt finance
  • Tax rebates and fee waivers
  • Cash grants and subsidies
  • Employment and training support
• Debt finance is most commonly used, but monitoring is essential to avoid unintended consequences.
• The report recommends a three-phase approach:
  • Phase 1 (Immediate Response): Focus on containment and supporting viable businesses.
  • Phase 2 (Short-term Recovery): Understand consumer sentiment, develop new products, and expand access for SMEs.
  • Phase 3 (Medium to Long-term Recovery): Enhance resilience and sustainability through regulatory reform, eco-friendly tourism, and technology integration.

Key Information

• The pandemic has deepened the sector’s vulnerabilities, particularly for SMEs and developing countries.
• Consolidation is likely to reduce the size and diversity of the tourism industry.
• Digital platforms and technology are critical tools for recovery and resilience.
• Public investments in tourism infrastructure and sustainable models are essential for long-term recovery.
• Consumer behavior has shifted, with increased domestic and regional travel and reduced international travel.
• Social media has amplified uncertainty and anxiety around travel, which may persist into recovery.

Conclusion

The travel and tourism industry is undergoing a structural transformation due to the pandemic, with long-term consequences on employment, revenue, and service quality. Developed countries are more resilient, while developing countries face greater challenges. The World Bank Group emphasizes the need for strategic support, innovation, and inclusive policies to rebuild a more sustainable and resilient tourism sector.