世界发展银行-How-the-Tourism-Sector-in-Emerging-Markets-is-Recovering-from-COVID-19_8页_652kb

Summary of the Tourism Sector in Emerging Markets Recovery from COVID-19

Core Content

The tourism sector in emerging markets has been severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a dramatic drop in international tourist arrivals, estimated at 58 to 78% in 2020. This decline threatens 100 to 120 million jobs, making the sector one of the most vulnerable to the economic effects of the crisis. The tourism value chain, including airlines, hotels, restaurants, and related industries, has been significantly affected.

Main Points

• Global Impact: Tourism accounts for 10% of global GDP and 1 in 10 jobs. The sector's decline has been the most severe since World War II.

• Vulnerability Factors:

  • Dependency on International Tourism: Countries that rely heavily on international tourists, such as Croatia, Fiji, Panama, Jamaica, Mauritius, and Jordan, are most affected.
  • Location and Access: Limited access via air travel and the impact of air travel bans and high costs hinder recovery. Remote and exotic destinations may struggle with reduced access post-pandemic.
  • Infrastructure: Poor domestic and healthcare infrastructure can impede recovery. Digital infrastructure and contactless travel are critical for rebuilding traveler confidence.
  • Government Response: Effective management of the pandemic, including public health measures and marketing, influences tourist perceptions and recovery speed. Clear policies and cooperation between governments are essential.

• Resilience Factors:

  • Domestic and Regional Demand: Countries with strong domestic tourism and regional connectivity (e.g., Thailand, Hong Kong SAR, China, Singapore) are more likely to recover quickly.
  • Private Sector Strength: Large international hotel operators have greater financial and operational resilience due to their access to liquidity, brand value, and supply chain integration.
  • Supply Chain Integration: Countries with robust local production and vertically integrated supply chains are better positioned to control costs and recover faster.

Key Destinations and Their Recovery Outlook

East and Southeast Asia (ESEA)

• Early Impact: The first region to report cases, with many countries managing the first wave effectively.
• Resilience: Benefited from prior experience with health crises (e.g., SARS), and have adequate infrastructure and strong domestic demand.
• Recovery Path: Likely to recover faster if they can generate strong demand from domestic and regional tourists, especially from China, and have well-integrated supply chains and government support.

Small Islands (Caribbean and Pacific)

• Vulnerability: High dependence on international tourism, limited access to destinations, and weak healthcare infrastructure.
• Recovery: Relies heavily on source nations such as the United States and Europe. Large operators may lead the recovery due to their networks and resources.

Sub-Saharan Africa

• Impact: The last region to be affected, with many countries having limited tourism as an economic sector.
• Challenges: Remote locations, limited domestic demand, and weak supply chains may delay recovery. Governments may not prioritize tourism in economic recovery plans.

Latin America

• Impact: Still struggling with pandemic control as of August 2020.
• Recovery: Some countries (e.g., Panama, Uruguay, Colombia) are more dependent on tourism for exports. Domestic and regional travel could help recovery, but tourism's small share of GDP may limit government support.

Recovery Path and Recommendations

• Two-Stage Recovery: Countries like China, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam show a potential two-stage recovery—first demand recovery through government campaigns and promotions, then earnings recovery once the virus is under control.
• Recommendations:
  • Long-term Sectoral View: Support well-managed, responsible hotels with low leverage.
  • Collaborate with Large Operators: Leverage their networks and resources to indirectly support local economies.
  • Address Acute Needs: Provide working capital to hotels to preserve jobs and maintain operations.
  • Flexible Financing: Extend repayment periods and support distressed assets.
  • Integrate with Other Sectors: Partner with healthcare and insurance providers to offer quarantine and health services.

Conclusion

The recovery of the tourism sector in emerging markets depends on a combination of domestic demand, private sector resilience, government support, and infrastructure development. While some regions are better positioned to recover due to their stronger economic and logistical foundations, others may require more time and targeted assistance to rebuild their tourism industries. The use of digital technology, clear policies, and international cooperation will be key in facilitating a sustainable and inclusive recovery.