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Summary of "The State of Grocery Retail 2022: Europe"

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the European grocery retail market in 2021 and its expected trajectory in 2022, highlighting the challenges and opportunities facing the sector amidst ongoing market headwinds. It is a joint publication by McKinsey & Company and EuroCommerce, based on data from over 12,000 consumers and 60 grocery executives, as well as interviews with industry leaders.

Main Trends and Insights

Market Performance in 2021

• Overall sales growth: Grocery retail sales in 2021 grew by 0.6% compared to 2020, but were still significantly higher than 2019 levels.
• Volume and price dynamics:
  • Volume decreased by 2.1%.
  • Price inflation increased by 1.3%, partially offsetting the volume decline.
  • Uptrading (increase in average basket value) was slight at 0.2%.
• Regional performance:
  • Northern and Western Europe: Mixed results, with some countries like Germany and the Netherlands showing growth.
  • Southern Europe: Declines in several countries, including Italy and Spain.
  • Central Europe: Poland showed growth, while others saw mixed outcomes.

Online Grocery Growth

• Online sales growth: Online grocery sales across Europe rose by 8.8% in 2021 compared to 2020, with strong performance in Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK.
• Instant delivery: This segment saw significant expansion, with the top 15 European players opening over 800 dark stores by year-end.
• Market size: The instant-delivery market reached between €3 billion and €6 billion in 2021, representing less than 1% of the total market, but with high growth potential.

Consumer Behavior

• Price sensitivity: Price remains a top priority for European consumers, with over 40% of consumers looking for ways to save money when shopping.
• Health and sustainability: These are also important factors, with more than 30% of consumers prioritizing healthy eating and nutrition. However, the percentage of consumers willing to pay more for healthier or environmentally friendly products has remained relatively low (around 6–10%).
• Private label: Consumers are increasingly turning to private-label products, with a rise in adoption across most European countries.

Key Challenges

• Inflation and rising energy prices: These are expected to continue impacting the market, increasing price sensitivity and driving downtrading.
• Wage increases and labor shortages: These are significant challenges for retailers, affecting both costs and operational efficiency.
• Supply chain disruptions: Ongoing issues in logistics and sourcing are affecting the sector, especially in the wake of the Ukraine invasion.

Opportunities

• E-commerce and omnichannel strategies: These are seen as critical for future growth, with many CEOs prioritizing their development.
• Sustainability transformation: Grocery retailers have an opportunity to lead in transforming the food system toward more sustainable practices.
• Expanding the ecosystem: Grocers are exploring ways to expand beyond traditional offerings, integrating services and technologies to enhance customer experience.

Key Interviews

• Matthias Wunderlin, Chief Commercial Officer, Migros Supermarkets (CH): Discusses the impact of the Ukraine invasion and its effect on market trends.
• Melanie Smith, CEO, Ocado Retail (UK): Talks about the future of online grocery and the evolution of the sector to 2030.
• Cláudia Azevedo, CEO, Sonae: Explores the opportunities in building stronger people models.
• Kagan Sumer, CEO, Gorillas: Discusses the future of instant grocery and whether it will continue to grow.
• Adam Manikowski, Managing Director, Zabka: Highlights the role of analytics in making granular decisions.
• Marina Caprotti, Executive Chairman, Esselunga (Italy): Discusses the expansion of the grocery ecosystem.

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for European grocery retailers to adapt to a landscape marked by inflation, shifting consumer priorities, and evolving market dynamics. It emphasizes the importance of leveraging e-commerce, omnichannel strategies, and data analytics to drive growth and improve efficiency. The Ukraine conflict is expected to intensify existing challenges, particularly inflation and price sensitivity, while also creating new opportunities for innovation and sustainability in the sector.