2021-05-31-欧洲地中海研究委员会-在不确定性中茁壮成长_恐怖组织与新冠疫情相关的机会（英文）_86页_6mb

Summary of THRIVING ON UNCERTAINTY: COVID-19-RELATED OPPORTUNITIES FOR TERRORIST GROUPS

Core Content

This policy study explores the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and terrorist activities in three key regions: the Sahel, the Mashreq, and the Maghreb. It examines how the pandemic has influenced the operational and ideological strategies of terrorist groups, particularly Jihadist movements, and how state responses to the crisis may have either exacerbated or mitigated the risk of increased terrorist activity.

The study is produced by EuroMeSCo, a network of think tanks and institutions focused on Euro-Mediterranean cooperation, and is co-funded by the European Union and the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed). It is part of the "Connecting the Dots" project, which aims to foster joint research and policy development between European and Southern Mediterranean experts.

Main Topics and Chapters

1. Executive Summary

• The pandemic has created a complex interplay between state responses, socioeconomic grievances, and terrorist activities.
• While the direct link between the virus and terrorism is not clear, the pandemic has been interpreted by terrorist groups as a divine test or opportunity to spread extremist ideology.
• Terrorist groups have used the crisis to expand their online presence, propaganda efforts, and recruitment strategies.
• The study emphasizes the need for comprehensive and evidence-based approaches to prevent and counter violent extremism (P/CVE) in the context of the pandemic.

2. Introduction

• The Jihadist doctrine is not static; it evolves with context and is used to justify actions and attract followers.
• The propaganda of terrorist groups often frames the pandemic as a divine punishment for the "ungodly" or as a test of faith.
• The study aims to examine the potential link between the spread of the virus and increased terrorist threats, and to propose recommendations for the European Union and other stakeholders.

3. COVID-19 in the Sahel: Litmus Test for State Capacity Rather Than Fuel for Extremists

• The initial assumption was that the pandemic would weaken state capacity and create opportunities for terrorist groups.
• However, data analysis and evidence from the Sahel (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso) suggest that the pandemic has not led to an increase in terrorist activity in the short term.
• The state responses to the pandemic, including lockdowns and health measures, have not significantly weakened the ability of states to combat terrorism.
• Structural issues such as corruption, poor governance, and economic grievances remain the primary drivers of violent extremism, not the pandemic itself.
• The interaction between the pandemic and terrorism is complex and multifaceted, with no clear correlation yet established.

Main Recommendations

• Redirect existing funding towards COVID-19 responses to avoid shrinking aid budgets in fragile areas.
• Launch awareness campaigns in European countries to educate the public on identifying and reporting online recruitment by terrorist groups, especially ISIS.
• Promote cooperation between the region and the EU, including information and expertise sharing.
• Encourage evidence-based pandemic management as a crisis intensifier, which can help reduce the appeal of extremist ideologies.
• Integrate P/CVE efforts with legal migration and sustainable economic growth to address root causes of terrorism.
• Provide financial support to Iraqi and Syrian Sunni youths to launch small businesses in post-conflict areas.

Key Findings

• Terrorist groups have exploited the pandemic to spread propaganda and justify their actions as divine or necessary responses to global crises.
• The virus is often framed as a tool of God, used to punish the ungodly and test the faith of Muslims.
• Online recruitment has increased due to lockdowns, which have pushed more people online.
• ISIS and affiliated groups have used the pandemic to reinforce their narrative, including hygiene measures as a means to promote religious practices.
• State responses have had mixed effects, with some weakening the legitimacy of governments and potentially increasing the appeal of extremist groups.
• Data from the Sahel suggests that the pandemic has not led to a surge in terrorist activity, but long-term implications remain uncertain.

Conclusion

The study argues that while the pandemic may have created opportunities for terrorist groups, it is not the primary driver of increased violence. Instead, the core governance issues and socioeconomic challenges remain the main factors that contribute to the growth of extremism. Therefore, policy responses should focus on addressing these underlying issues, not just the immediate effects of the pandemic.

Key Authors and Institutions

• Abdelhak Bassou – Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South (PCNS)
• Johannes Claes, Dr. Kars de Bruijne, Sophie Mertens – Researchers from the Clingendael Institute
• Eman Ragab – Focus on Mashreq region
• Clara-Auguste Süß – Focus on Maghreb region
• EuroMeSCo – A network of 104 think tanks and 500 experts from 29 countries
• European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) – A think and do tank focused on Euro-Mediterranean relations

References

• Benraad, M. (2020). Quand la propaganda djihadiste s'empare de la crise sanitaire.
• Bousset, P. (2020). Covid-19, le djihadisme au début d'une pandémie.
• De Courrèges, H., Germain, E., & Le Nen, N. (2010). Principes de contreinsurrection.
• Stalinsky, S. (2020). What Jihadists are saying about the coronavirus.

This policy study provides insights into how terrorist groups have adapted to the pandemic environment, and offers strategic recommendations for the European Union and regional stakeholders to mitigate the risks and address the root causes of terrorism in the post-pandemic context.