2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Pension_Reforms_in_Mauritius_Fair_and_FastBalancing_Social_Protection_and_Fiscal_Sustainability_24页_750kb

Summary of Pension Reforms in Mauritius: Fair and Fast—Balancing Social Protection and Fiscal Sustainability

Core Content

This IMF Working Paper analyzes the challenges facing Mauritius' pension system due to an aging population and proposes reform options to ensure fiscal sustainability while maintaining social protection.

Main Pension Schemes in Mauritius

Key Challenges

• Demographic Trends:

  • The population aged 60 and older is projected to rise from 13% in 2013 to 30% in 2050 and 35% by 2100.
  • Population growth is expected to slow and eventually decline, leading to a significant rise in the dependency ratio.
  • Life expectancy has increased, contributing to an aging population and higher pension costs.

• Fiscal Pressures:

  • Public pension spending is expected to rise from 3.7% of GDP in 2013 to 5% in 2015 and exceed 11% of GDP by 2060.
  • The BRP is the largest contributor to pension spending, with a flat benefit structure that is poorly targeted to reduce poverty.
  • The CSDB pension scheme is expected to face increasing costs due to the transition to the DC scheme, with a projected deficit of 16% of GDP in 2015–2050.
  • The NPF is projected to exhaust its assets by 2063 under a 3% real return assumption, with the need for government subsidies or changes in contribution rates if it is to remain sustainable.

Reform Options

• Retirement Age Harmonization:

  • A phased increase in the retirement age to 65 for all schemes could help reduce future pension spending.
  • Indexing the retirement age to life expectancy may help manage the impact of demographic changes.

• Targeting and Generosity:

  • The BRP should be reexamined for means-testing to improve its poverty-reducing effectiveness.
  • The CSDB could be adjusted to reduce generosity, especially for higher-income groups, to improve long-term sustainability.

• Defined Contribution (DC) Scheme Improvements:

  • The CSDC scheme, introduced for new civil servants, has reduced long-term pension deficits but will require increased government contributions in the short to medium term.
  • The DC system should be finalized with clear institutional setup, distribution rules, and investment strategy.

• NPF Reforms:

  • The NPF needs to be monitored closely to ensure that the present discounted value of benefits does not exceed the value of assets and future contributions.
  • Enhancing investment returns and strengthening governance are critical to ensuring long-term sustainability.
  • The government should consider increasing contribution rates or adjusting benefit formulas to prevent asset depletion.

Conclusion

• The current pension system in Mauritius is under significant pressure due to an aging population and demographic changes.
• Without reforms, the BRP and NPF may become unsustainable, with the NPF potentially leading to contingent government liabilities.
• A combination of measures—such as harmonizing retirement ages, improving targeting, and enhancing investment returns—can help balance social protection and fiscal sustainability.
• Implementing reforms in a fair and fast manner is essential to avoid future drastic changes and to ensure equitable outcomes.

Key Findings

• The BRP is the most significant contributor to public pension spending, with a projected increase of ~4.5 percentage points of GDP over 2015–2050.
• The transition to the DC scheme for civil servants is expected to reduce long-term pension deficits but will increase short-term costs.
• The NPF is projected to face asset depletion by 2063 and may require government intervention.
• Reforms should be implemented gradually to maintain financial stability and avoid significant fiscal shocks.
• An independent body may be needed to oversee the reform process and ensure broad support and reduce the risk of reversal.