战略与国际研究中心-Hemisphere-Highlights,-Volume-VII,-Issue-9_7页_157kb

HEMISPHERE HIGHLIGHTS Summary

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive overview of political, social, and economic developments in Latin America and the Caribbean during October 2008. It includes updates on upcoming events, recent political changes, and key issues affecting various countries, such as corruption, migration, and constitutional reforms.

Upcoming Events

• November 10: "Latin America: Hydrocarbons at a Crossroads"
• November 14: "Controlling Corruption in Local Governments in Latin America"
• December 2: "Cuba's Economy; Prospects for Change" (Part of the Cuba Outlook Series)

Headlines

• Canada: Stephen Harper's Conservatives won a strengthened minority government with 143 seats in Parliament. The Liberal Party lost significant support, with a drop of nearly 19% in voter numbers. Harper has appointed new cabinet members, including Canada's first minister from Nunavut, Leona Aglukkaq.
• Mexico: A series of prison riots over the past two months highlights a crisis in the country's penitentiary system, with over 60 prisoners killed. The government is cracking down on narco-traffickers, leading to increased violence in prisons. Mexico and Cuba signed an agreement to cooperate on reducing illegal immigration, with deportations starting in late November.
• Guatemala: Marlene Blanco Lapola became the first female director of the National Civilian Police (PNC), aiming to restore public trust and combat corruption and domestic violence.
• CARICOM: 13 out of 15 members signed an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the European Union, with Haiti expected to sign by 2010. The agreement includes duty-free access for Caribbean exports and phased removal of import duties on European goods.
• Haiti: The UN Security Council renewed the MINUSTAH mandate, emphasizing the long-term need for security and recovery after hurricanes caused massive damage. The country is still without a functioning government due to political deadlock.
• Colombia: President Uribe sacked 24 military officers over allegations of human rights violations, including extrajudicial killings. Human rights organizations criticized the government for ongoing issues despite some improvements.
• Venezuela: The government, under Hugo Chávez, is facing a severe drop in oil prices, which threatens its 2009 budget. Venezuela is pushing for an OPEC production cut but may need to cut spending on social programs.
• Brazil: Brazil and Cuba signed an offshore oil exploration deal, with Brazil also supporting Cuba's renewable energy sector. Brazil invited Cuba's leader, Raul Castro, to a regional summit.
• Bolivia: The Morales government reached a constitutional reform agreement with the opposition, easing the political crisis. The new constitution includes concessions such as a single presidential term and a two-thirds majority for amendments, but some opposition leaders oppose the changes.
• Ecuador: Tensions with Brazil's construction firm Odebrecht escalated due to disputes over the San Francisco hydroelectric project, leading to the firm's expulsion and the suspension of its projects.

Key Issues and Challenges

• Corruption and Governance:

  • Mexico's prison system is in crisis due to overcrowding, faulty infrastructure, and internal corruption.
  • Guatemala's PNC is plagued by corruption and has a poor record in solving crimes against women.
  • Bolivia remains deeply divided politically, with regional and ethnic tensions continuing despite the constitutional agreement.

• Migration and Border Security:

  • Mexico and Cuba agreed on a migration cooperation plan, aiming to reduce illegal immigration and protect human rights.
  • The U.S. has suspended deportations to Haiti but has not granted temporary protective status to Haitians in the U.S.

• Economic and Trade Developments:

  • CARICOM-EU EPA is expected to boost trade but faces opposition over intellectual property and implementation costs.
  • Venezuela's oil-dependent economy is under pressure due to falling oil prices.
  • Brazil's investment in Cuba's energy sector is part of a strategic move to strengthen regional ties.

• Human Rights and Security:

  • Colombia's military is under scrutiny for extrajudicial killings and human rights abuses.
  • The renewal of MINUSTAH in Haiti underscores the need for continued international support in maintaining security.

Regional Highlights

Contributing Authors

• Peter DeShazo – Director, Americas Program
• Katherine E. Bliss – Deputy Director and Senior Fellow
• Johanna Mendelson Forman – Senior Associate
• Jessica Horwitz – Program Coordinator
• Alex Demosthenes – Intern-Scholar
• Jorge Mora – Intern-Scholar
• Matt Potter – Intern-Scholar