战略与国际研究中心-Hemisphere-Highlights,-Volume-VII,-Issue-3-March-2009_7页_154kb

报告摘要

HEMISPHERE HIGHLIGHTS Summary

Core Content

This document, HEMISPHERE HIGHLIGHTS, Volume VIII, Issue 3, March 2009, provides an overview of key political, economic, and security developments across the Americas. It covers upcoming events, regional updates, and country-specific news, with a focus on the impact of the global financial crisis and evolving U.S.-Latin America relations.

Main Events and Trends

Upcoming Events

April 6: Lawrence Cannon, Canada’s Foreign Minister, will speak on "Canada's Arctic Policy."
April 7: A colloquium on "An Agenda for the Americas" will explore ways to energize U.S.-hemispheric relations and enhance regional security.

Regional Developments

The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) held its 50th annual meeting in Medellín, Colombia, where participants discussed Latin America's economic challenges and the need for increased investment. There was a call for a $100 billion capital replenishment.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner supported an expansion of IDB lending but did not directly endorse capital replenishment.
Bill Clinton urged the region to stay engaged with its less responsible neighbors and rejected the legalization of cocaine, calling it a "disaster."

North America

Canada

Canada increased its financial and military support for Afghanistan, including a C$21 million pledge to strengthen the rule of law and a C$35 million contribution to support the 2009 elections.
Canada is expanding its RCMP training officers in Kandahar, increasing their number from 8 to 50.
Canada’s withdrawal timeline from Afghanistan is being supported by these nonmilitary initiatives.
The death toll of Canadian soldiers in Afghanistan reached 116 since 2002.

Mexico

The U.S. announced a new security initiative to address drug cartel violence, including border personnel reallocation, financial disruption, and intelligence coordination.
The Mérida Initiative, a multiyear program, has received $700 million in FY08 and FY09 funds.
Hillary Clinton visited Mexico to emphasize U.S. responsibility in the drug crisis.
Drug violence in 2008 claimed over 6,000 lives, attributed to cartel turf wars and attacks on police and military.
There are rumors of cooperation among major cartels to protect business interests.
President Obama is set to visit Mexico in April, where border security, trade, and immigration policy will be discussed.

Caribbean

Cuba

Raul Castro reshuffled the cabinet, removing key reformers like Carlos Lage and Felipe Pérez Roque, who were seen as potential successors.
The move was interpreted as an effort to consolidate power and reduce the influence of reformists.
Analysts suggest this reorganization may help improve U.S.-Cuba relations in the long term.

Central America

El Salvador

Mauricio Funes of the FMLN party won the presidential election, ending 20 years of conservative rule by ARENA.
His victory was attributed to public desire for change and the financial crisis.
Funes emphasized pragmatism and did not intend to reverse privatizations or threaten private property.
Analysts remain cautious about his ability to moderate his party’s hardliners.

South America

Colombia

President Alvaro Uribe launched the "Strategic Leap" initiative to consolidate state control over conflict-affected regions.
The plan involves interagency coordination and targets areas historically affected by FARC, ELN, and drug trafficking.
The PCIM (Plan de Consolidación Integral de la Macarena) is a key existing initiative in this effort.
Colombian media has expressed resentment towards U.S. influence, particularly in judicial reforms and military presence.
Despite this, bilateral friction has remained relatively low due to the success of Plan Colombia.

Peru

The capture of suspected Shining Path members in Vizcatan and Huanucu Provinces indicates the group still has a presence.
The group, originally a Maoist insurgent organization, has shifted focus to cocaine production and smuggling.
It is estimated to employ 500 laborers and have 350 armed combatants in the drug trade.
A faction of Shining Path denounced Abimael Guzmán as a "revisionist traitor" and plans to reemerge as a populist movement.

Argentina

The Argentine Senate passed a bill to move legislative elections to June 28, 2009, from the originally scheduled October 25.
The move was justified by the government as a way to respond to the financial crisis and focus on economic measures.
The opposition argues the government is losing popularity and the early election is a strategy to retain support.
The election outcome is expected to be a three-way split between the Justicialista Party, a center-right alliance, and a center-left alliance.

Key Information

Latin America's economic preparedness has improved but is still vulnerable to the global financial crisis.
Canada's Afghanistan strategy is increasingly focused on nonmilitary aspects, including rule of law and elections.
U.S.-Mexico security cooperation is intensifying, with a focus on drug cartel violence and border control.
Cuba's cabinet reshuffle raises questions about succession planning and U.S. relations.
El Salvador's new president represents a shift towards the left, but his moderate stance is under scrutiny.
Colombia's media is showing increased anti-U.S. sentiment, but bilateral relations remain stable.
Peru's Shining Path is still active in the cocaine trade and has a significant presence in the Vizcatan region.
Argentina's early elections are a strategic move by the government to manage the economic crisis and consolidate power.

Contributing Authors

Peter DeShazo – Director, Americas Program
Katherine E. Bliss – Deputy Director and Senior Fellow
Phillip McLean – Senior Associate
Carlos M. Regúnaga – Director, Argentina Office
Jessica Horwitz – Program Coordinator
Thomas Cook – Intern-Scholar
John Mulqueen – Intern-Scholar
Matt Potter – Intern-Scholar

Publisher Information

Hemisphere Highlights is a monthly publication by the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
CSIS is a private, tax-exempt institution that focuses on international policy issues.
The research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary, and all views are those of the authors.