战略与国际研究中心-Hemisphere-Highlights,-Volume-VII,-Issue-3_6页_161kb

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HEMISPHERE HIGHLIGHTS Summary

Core Content

This summary highlights key political and economic developments in several Latin American countries during March 2008, including Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina. The focus is on diplomatic relations, security challenges, economic policies, and regional dynamics.

Main Events and Key Issues

Mexico and Cuba

Rebuilding Bilateral Ties: Mexico and Cuba have restarted the Permanent Mechanism for Information and Political Consultation, which had been suspended since 1998.
Cooperation Agreements: The two countries have reactivated several bilateral agreements, focusing on trade, tourism, health, and transportation.
Political Significance: This marks a new era of cooperation, with Mexico supporting Cuba's bid for a non-permanent UN Security Council seat and restructuring its $400-million debt.
Economic Context: Trade between Mexico and Cuba has declined from $459 million in the mid-1990s to $200 million in recent years.

Colombia

FARC's Decline: There is growing belief among Colombians that the FARC may be on the decline, with a Gallup poll showing over two-thirds think the group will be defeated.
Military Success: The government's killing of FARC commander Raul Reyes and the destruction of his camp in Ecuador has boosted public confidence in the military.
Implications: The weakening of FARC and right-wing groups could create space for a democratic left, strengthen the legal economy, and reduce narcotics production. However, it may also lead to demands for quick solutions and challenges for law enforcement.

Venezuela

Satellite Cooperation: China will deliver a satellite to Venezuela, known as the Simón Bolívar Satellite, to enhance telecommunications autonomy. This is the second time China has assembled a satellite for a third party.
Oil Policy: President Hugo Chávez announced a new "windfall" tax on oil companies to increase state revenue from rising profits.
Legal Disputes: A British judge rejected a preliminary order to freeze PDVSA's assets, which had been requested by ExxonMobil after Chávez's nationalization of a heavy oil project. Legal battles with the U.S. and other countries continue, affecting Venezuela's financial stability.

Brazil

Defense Review: Defense Minister Nelson Jobim is leading a review of Brazil's military role, aiming to develop a strategic defense plan by September 2008.
Regional Leadership: Brazil seeks to create a regional defense identity through a proposed council based on three geographic zones: the Amazon, the Andes, and the River Plate area.
Geopolitical Role: Brazil is positioning itself as a leader in South American security and energy, while also emphasizing civilian control and resource allocation for defense.

Bolivia

Autonomy Referendums: Tensions between President Evo Morales and regional authorities in Santa Cruz, Tarija, Pando, and Beni are escalating, with the latter three planning referendums on regional autonomy.
Government Actions: The Morales administration has imposed a six-month export ban on cooking oil and natural gas, affecting the Santa Cruz economy. This has been interpreted by some as a political move.
Referendum Challenges: The National Electoral Court (CNE) has ruled that the autonomy referendums in Santa Cruz are unauthorized, leading to potential conflict.

Chile

Energy Crisis: Chile faces a severe energy and drought crisis due to La Niña, low hydroelectric reservoir levels, and reduced natural gas supply from Argentina.
Economic Impact: The country has experienced high inflation (8.1% in February 2008) and rising electricity costs, affecting agriculture and the copper industry.
Government Response: Chile has implemented temporary tax cuts and distributed emergency water to mitigate the crisis. The Supreme Court extended daylight saving time to save energy.

Argentina

Social Protests: Farmers are blocking highways due to increased export duties on crops, leading to food shortages and public frustration.
Export Duty Policy: Export duties were introduced in 2002 to address fiscal needs and prevent inflation, but have since been raised multiple times.
Economic Dilemma: There is a debate over replacing export duties with a land tax to stabilize prices and support farmers, though this would require gradual implementation.

Contributing Authors

Peter DeShazo: Director, Americas Program
Lowell Fleischer: Senior Associate
Phillip McLean: Senior Associate
Johanna Mendelson Forman: Senior Associate
Carlos M. Regúnaga: Argentina Office
Sarah McCune: Intern-Scholar
Michelle Housworth: Intern-Scholar

About Hemisphere Highlights

Published monthly by the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Focuses on nonpartisan and nonproprietary research on international policy issues in the Americas.
CSIS does not take specific policy positions, and all views expressed are those of the individual authors.

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