20130809-Maybank_KERPL-Hemaraj_Land___Devt_Going_strong_12页_1mb

报告摘要

HEMRAJ is one of the leading industrial estate operators in Thailand, focusing on the eastern region (heavy industries) and lower north, Saraburi (medium industries).
The Saraburi site serves as an alternative to Ayudhaya, which was severely affected by flooding in 2011.
HEMRAJ's multi-site strategy allows it to cater to a broader client base.
Land sales are expected to reach THB1.6bn in 2Q13, up 15% QoQ, and are projected to be beatable.
The land transfer is proceeding at a clip pace, with the development team already working on 1Q14 transfers.

The land pre-sale target is expected to be revised again from 1800 rai to possibly over 2000 rai.
The target is to be announced alongside the 2Q performance report.

Revenue Growth: Projected to reach THB8,816m in 2013F, with 1H13 reaching THB1.6bn (about 49% of FY forecast).
EBITDA: Expected to be THB3,549m in 2013F.
Reported Earnings: THB3,335m in 2013F.
Basic EPS (Bt): 0.34 in 2013F.
EPS Growth (%): 45.4 in 2013F.
DPS (Bt): 0.17 in 2013F.
BVPS (Bt): 1.37 in 2013F.
PER (x): 9.5 in 2013F.
EV/EBITDA (x): 11.1 in 2013F.
Dividend Yield (%): 5.2 in 2013F.
P/BV (x): 2.4 in 2013F.
Net Gearing (%): 70.6 in 2013F.
ROE (%): 27.5 in 2013F.
ROCE (%): 17.1 in 2013F.

Projected to grow by 15% YoY to THB645m in 2013F.
Rental income is expected to be the main driver, while water sales may fall due to lower utilization.

HEMRAJ will own 30% of a property fund by YE13.
The fund's value is expected to be THB4-5bn at 28-30K baht/sqm, with development costs well below 10K baht/sqm.
Funds raised will be used to reduce leverage to 1x or below and to pay dividends.

A coal-fired IPP with a 35% stake.
Experiencing teething problems, with contribution expected to be about 50% of the THB1.4bn guidance.
Tax penalty on foreign exchange gains is being appealed, and the impact on earnings is not expected to change the estimates.

The recent pullback in share price has brought HEMRAJ's PE and PBV multiples back to long-term averages.
Valuation is considered attractive, and the company is seen as a strong investment with potential for upgrades due to strong growth and improving revenue quality.
The BUY rating is maintained with a 12-month target price of THB5.00 (SoTP based).

Segment	2011A	2012A	2013F	2014F	2015F	2016F
Land Sales	48%	62%	61%	58%	55%	52%
Rentals	10%	12%	12%	13%	14%	17%
Utilities & Services	24%	21%	20%	22%	25%	26%
Property	17%	4%	4%	5%	2%	3%
Others	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%

Financial Metric	2011A	2012A	2013F	2014F	2015F
Revenue (THB in millions)	4,174	6,399	8,816	9,287	9,276
EBITDA (THB in millions)	1,417	2,560	3,549	3,803	3,846
Reported Earnings (THB in millions)	536	2,294	3,335	3,677	3,734
Basic EPS (Bt)	0.06	0.24	0.34	0.38	0.38
EPS Growth (%)	-62.0	328.2	45.4	10.3	1.6
DPS (Bt)	0.06	0.11	0.17	0.19	0.19
BVPS (Bt)	0.94	1.14	1.37	1.58	1.78
PER (x)	59.4	13.9	9.5	8.7	8.5
EV/EBITDA (x)	25.9	15.2	11.1	10.8	8.3
Net Debt/EBITDA (x)	3.3	3.5	2.2	2.4	2.8

Rating Trends: Multiple BUY ratings from May to August 2013, with a consistent target price of THB5.00.
Analyst Recommendations Chart: Shows a mix of recommendations, with potential for upward revisions.

HEMRAJ's multi-site strategy is a key strength, allowing it to cater to a broader range of clients.
The company is benefiting from the shift in FDI from Japan to Europe, with strong land sales and rental income.
Gheco One, while facing initial challenges, is expected to contribute significantly to earnings.
The property fund is expected to yield substantial profits and help reduce leverage.
The company's financial performance is on an upward trend, with improved margins and strong earnings growth.

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