20131218-Maybank_KERPL-Thailand_Industrial_Estate_Value_Traps__They_Should_Not_Be_14页_1mb

报告摘要

Company	Rating	Mkt Cap (USDm)	Liquidity (USDm)	Price (Bt)	Target (Bt)	Upside (%)	EPS (Bt)	DPS (Bt)	FY14E PE(X)	PBV(X)	Yld(%)	ROE(%)
AMATA	BUY	470	2.84	14.3	22.8	59.4	1.5	0.6	9.4	1.9	4.3	20.2
HEMRAJ	BUY	916	1.60	3.1	5.0	63.4	0.4	0.2	8.1	1.9	6.2	24.1
TICON	BUY	470	1.96	16.8	26.0	54.8	1.8	1.4	9.3	1.4	8.0	14.7
Average									8.9	1.7	6.2	19.6
SET									12.0	2.8	4.1	20.9

Industrial land sales in Thailand were robust during 2012-2013.
HEMRAJ revised its presale target up to 2300 rai in 2013, with a landbank of nearly 7000 rai.
AMATA presold close to 2500 rai in 2013 but failed to meet its internal target of 3000 rai due to delayed signing from major customers.
In 2014, conservative presale targets are 1700 rai for HEMRAJ and 1000 rai for AMATA. However, AMATA could exceed 2000 rai if major customers sign early next year.
The IEAT reported land sales of 5609 rai in FY2013, surpassing its internal target of 5000 rai. It has 12,881 rai left for sale.
IEAT is developing 13 new estates in the northeastern provinces, targeting automotive, electronics, and agriculture manufacturers.

Thailand is viewed as a favorable location for manufacturing and production due to growth potential and development plans.
Political stability is beneficial for development, but private sector-driven growth is already in motion.
The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) anticipates the creation of newer industries as older ones move to lower cost areas.
The development in the northeastern region aligns with Thailand's positioning as an ASEAN Economic Community hub and the dispersion of economic activity away from Bangkok.

FDI remains a bright spot for Thailand, with a conservative estimate of 1700 rai for HEMRAJ and 1000 rai for AMATA in 2014.
Global FDI is expected to remain flattish in 2014, but Thailand's industrial land sales are projected to hit new highs.
The automotive sector is a significant driver of land sales, though this does not represent the full picture of FDI.
Thailand FDI By Country (9M13):
- Japan: 4,753
- UK: 1,330
- EU: 981
- US: 1,763
- ASEAN: 782
- Other: 393
- Total: 8,792

While Japanese investors drive FDI in Thailand, the land sales profiles of HEMRAJ, TICON, and AMATA give the impression of auto dependence.
This is due to the clustering of auto manufacturers in their estates, not a national trend.
These estates are open to accommodating other industries.

Investors are advised to consider the current weakness in the share prices of HEMRAJ, TICON, and AMATA as an opportunity to accumulate stocks.
HEMRAJ has a potential earnings upgrade from the full contribution of its stake in a 660MW IPP project by Gheco-One in 2014.
TICON has potential for stronger sales growth due to a larger expansion budget (THB12bn) and delayed profit adjustments.
AMATA could exceed its 2014 presale target if delayed customers sign in early 2014.

Profit and Loss Statement:
- Revenues: 4,388 (10A), 4,174 (11A), 6,853 (12F), 7,879 (13F), 8,126 (14F)
- EBIT: 1,179 (10A), 1,179 (11A), 1,214 (12F), 2,340 (13F), 2,576 (14F)
- EBITDA: 1,366 (10A), 1,417 (11A), 2,567 (12F), 2,833 (13F), 2,951 (14F)
- Net Income: 1,411 (10A), 536 (11A), 2,104 (12F), 2,729 (13F), 2,907 (14F)
Balance Sheet:
- Cash and cash equivalents: 3,517 (10A), 3,718 (11A), 3,822 (12F), 3,216 (13F), 3,500 (14F)
- Total assets: 18,715 (10A), 20,840 (12F), 22,445 (13F), 22,779 (14F)
- Shareholders' equity: 9,139 (10A), 10,419 (12F), 12,179 (13F), 13,785 (14F)
Ratio Analysis:
- ROE: 16.0%, 5.9%, 21.5%, 24.2%, 22.4%
- ROA: 4.4%, 1.4%, 5.2%, 6.3%, 6.4%
- Net Debt/EBITDA: 3.3, 3.3, 1.7, 1.7, 1.2

Profit and Loss Statement:
- Revenues: 2,233 (2011A), 5,590 (2012A), 7,387 (2013F), 7,823 (2014F), 8,278 (2015F)
- EBITDA: 1,206 (2011A), 2,357 (2012A), 3,273 (2013F), 3,539 (2014F), 3,884 (2015F)
- Net Income: 437 (2011A), 1,297 (2012A), 1,942 (2013F), 2,056 (2014F), 2,177 (2015F)
Balance Sheet:
- Total assets: 15,289 (2011A), 19,740 (2012A), 27,060 (2013F), 33,675 (2014F), 40,654 (2015F)
- Shareholders' equity: 5,740 (2011A), 7,897 (2012A), 10,668 (2013F), 14,050 (2014F), 14,686 (2015F)
Ratio Analysis:
- ROE: 7.6%, 16.4%, 18.2%, 14.6%
- ROA: 2.9%, 6.6%, 7.2%, 6.1%
- Net Debt/EBITDA: 6.4, 4.0, 4.4, 5.0

Income Statement:
- Revenue: 3,096 (2010), 3,748 (2011F), 5,359 (2012F), 6,908 (2013F), 6,536 (2014F), 6,598 (2015F)
- EBITDA: 1,162 (2010), 1,429 (2011F), 1,796 (2012F), 2,573 (2013F), 2,458 (2014F), 2,509 (2015F)
- Operating Profit (EBIT): 1,037 (2010), 1,415 (2011F), 1,711 (2012F), 2,473 (2013F), 2,350 (2014F), 2,410 (2015F)
Balance Sheet:
- Total assets: 18,715 (10A), 20,840 (12F), 22,445 (13F), 22,779 (14F)
- Shareholders' equity: 9,139 (10A), 10,419 (12F), 12,179 (13F), 13,785 (14F)
Ratio Analysis:
- ROE: 16.0%, 5.9%, 21.5%, 24.2%, 22.4%
- ROA: 4.4%, 1.4%, 5.2%, 6.3%, 6.4%
- Net Debt/EBITDA: 3.3, 3.3, 1.7, 1.7, 1.2