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The Rise of PayTech: Seven Forces Reshaping Payments

Executive Summary

The payments industry is undergoing radical transformation driven by PayTech. Seven key forces are reshaping the future: Open Banking, Real-Time Payments, Cross-Border Payments, Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL), Digital Wallets & Super Apps, Embedded Payments, and Digital Currencies/CBDCs. These forces enable instant, frictionless, and embedded payments, offering value beyond transactions.

Seven Forces Shaping Payments

1. Open Banking

• Impact: Empowers customers through APIs, enabling direct access to bank accounts and payments initiation ("pay by bank").
• Key Players: Banks, FinTechs, and payments providers.
• Growth: UK open banking payments reached 26.6 million cumulative transactions by 2021.
• Challenges: Market fragmentation and regulatory compliance.

2. Real-Time Payments (RTP)

• Technology: Modern rails (e.g., UK Faster Payments Service) support instant transactions.
• Use Cases: Drive overlays like request-to-pay, fraud management, and cross-border payments.
• Market Growth: Expected to reach $193 billion by 2030, growing at 34.9% CAGR.

3. Cross-Border Payments

• Efforts: Address speed, cost, and transparency issues with initiatives like IXB (instant cross-border rails).
• Solutions: Central bank experiments (e.g., CBDCs), SWIFT’s ISO 20022 standards, and digital assets.

4. Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL)

• Adoption: Fastest-growing payment method, accounting for ~3% of global e-commerce spend ($157B in 2021).
• Evolution: Expanding from retail to B2B, healthcare, and corporate purchases.
• Regulators: Increasing scrutiny (e.g., UK FCA and EU directives).

5. Digital Wallets & Super Apps

• APAC Leadership: 68.5% share in e-commerce payments in APAC (expected 72.4% by 2025).
• Expansion: Integrating services like BNPL, digital identity, and contactless payments.
• Examples: WeChat (450M daily active users) and GrabPay (32M monthly users).

6. Embedded Payments

• Definition: Payments integrated into non-financial services (e.g., marketplaces, platforms).
• Market Value: Estimated $4.5 trillion by 2030, accounting for ~70% of embedded finance.
• Opportunity: B2B2C models (e.g., Uber drivers) generate meaningful revenue.

7. Digital Currencies & CBDCs

• Blockchain: Enables instant settlement, reduced FX risks, and cross-border interoperability.
• CBDCs: 86% of central banks globally are researching CBDCs; some in pilot phases (e.g., UK’s Digital Sterling).
• Commercial Use: Tokenizing commercial bank deposits and stablecoins for efficient post-trade settlements.

Key Recommendations

• Open Banking: Exploit open payments to complement traditional channels, prioritize recurring payment APIs (VRP).
• Real-Time Payments: Invest in overlays (fraud, liquidity) to enhance RTP value.
• BNPL: Address profitability issues by adopting AI for credit decisions and ensuring regulatory compliance.
• Embedded Payments: Expand B2B2C models and leverage APIs for value-added services.
• CBDCs: Explore tokenization opportunities and participate in industry consortia.

EY’s Role

EY offers strategic services in payments modernization, embedded finance, open banking, and CBDC adoption, helping incumbents collaborate with PayTechs to thrive in the evolving landscape.