20161128-中国银河国际证券-Cement_Prices_Flat_Last_Week__Xinjiang_Took_the_Lead_in_Removing_Grade_32.5_Cement_12页_963kb
报告摘要
China Cement Sector Summary
Core Content
The document provides an analysis of the Chinese cement sector, highlighting recent price trends, regional developments, and company performance metrics. It also includes a valuation table and a market share breakdown of major cement producers.
Key Information
Cement Price Trends
- National Average Cement Price: The average cement price nationwide dropped by 0.03% week-on-week to RMB317.75/tonne.
- Regional Variations:
- Prices in parts of Anhui, Sichuan, and Yunnan increased by RMB10-20/tonne.
- Prices in Hainan decreased by RMB5-10/tonne.
- A proposed RMB15/tonne price hike in Jiangxi was not fully executed due to rainy weather.
- Market Demand: Significant shrinkage in northeast China due to winter weather with rain and snow.
- Daily Shipments: Declined by 10%-20% week-on-week.
- Inventory Level: The average inventory level (nationwide) slightly declined to 64.94%.
Coal Price Trends
- Comprehensive Average Price Index: Continued mild decline in coal prices.
- Bohai - Rim Steam Coal (Q5500K): The index fell RMB3/tonne to RMB601/tonne.
- Year-on-Year (YoY): The index was still up 61.1%.
Regional Cement Standard Upgrade
- Xinjiang: Announced the elimination of grade 32.5 cement from May 1, 2017, making it the first region in China to transition to high-standard (grade 42.5 or above) cement production.
- Capacity Reduction Target: 5 million tonnes in 2017.
- Market Advantage: Local and central government projects account for ~90% of fixed-asset investment (FAI) in Xinjiang, while property development accounts for >20% in other regions. This makes Xinjiang more favorable for standard upgrading.
Cement Stock Performance
- Stock Rally: Cement stocks under coverage rose on average by 5% last week.
- Best Performer: BBMG increased by 6.6%.
- Weakest Performer: CR Cement also rose by 3%.
Valuation Table
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Price (HK$) | Market Cap (US$m) | PER (x) 2015 | PER (x) 2016E | PER (x) 2017E | EV/EBITDA (x) 2015 | EV/EBITDA (x) 2016E | EV/EBITDA (x) 2017E | Net Debt Equity (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anhui Conch | 914 HK Equity | BUY | 23.05 | 14,583 | 16.6 | 11.5 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 5.8 | (1) |
| ONBM | 3323 HK Equity | HOLD | 4.13 | 2,859 | 29.9 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 221 |
| BBMG | 2009 HK Equity | BUY | 3.07 | 6,445 | 13.8 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 62 |
| CR Cement | 1313 HK Equity | BUY | 3.41 | 2,856 | 10.8 | 13.5 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 62 |
| Simple Average | 17.8 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 86 | ||||
| Weighted Average | 16.7 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 45 |
EPS Growth and Valuation Metrics
| Company | Ticker | EPS Growth 2016E (%) | EPS Growth 2017E (%) | CAGR (%) | PEG (x) | ROE (%) 2016E | ROE (%) 2017E | Dividend Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anhui Conch | 914 HK Equity | 45.2 | 12.3 | 27.7 | 0.4 | 8.93 | 12.00 | 2.3 |
| ONBM | 3323 HK Equity | 151.6 | 41.9 | 89.0 | 0.1 | 1.49 | 3.66 | 1.1 |
| CR Cement | 1313 HK Equity | (17.1) | 25.7 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 7.51 | 6.28 | 1.7 |
| BBMG | 2009 HK Equity | 54.4 | 18.6 | 35.3 | 0.4 | 5.41 | 7.33 | 1.4 |
| Simple Average | 58.5 | 24.6 | 38.5 | 1.3 | 5.84 | 7.32 | 1.8 | |
| Weighted Average | 52.1 | 18.4 | 33.4 | 0.8 | 7.14 | 9.37 | 2.0 |
Peer Comparison
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Price (LC) | Market Cap (US$m) | PER (x) 2015 | PER (x) 2016E | PER (x) 2017E | EV/EBITDA (x) 2015 | EV/EBITDA (x) 2016E | EV/EBITDA (x) 2017E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anhui Conch | 914 HK Equity | BUY | 23.05 | 14,583 | 16.6 | 11.5 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 5.8 |
| CNBM | 3323 HK Equity | HOLD | 4.13 | 2,859 | 29.9 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 9.6 |
| BBMG | 2009 HK Equity | BUY | 3.07 | 6,445 | 13.8 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 7.2 |
| CR Cement | 1313 HK Equity | BUY | 3.41 | 2,856 | 10.8 | 13.5 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 6.9 |
| TCC International | 1136 HK Equity | NR | 1.92 | 1,217 | - | 87.3 | 23.4 | 0.49 | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| China National Materials | 1893 HK Equity | NR | 1.88 | 861 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| Asia Cement | 743 HK Equity | NR | 1.96 | 394 | - | 19.4 | 10.9 | 0.30 | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| West China Cement | 2233 HK Equity | NR | 0.79 | 549 | - | 117.5 | 17.2 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| Tianrui Cement | 1252 HK Equity | NR | 1.92 | 591 | 17.5 | n.a. | n.a. | 0.54 | n.a. | n.a. |
| Simple Average | 5.4 | 34.6 | 11.9 | 0.48 | 0.63 | 0.60 | ||||
| Weighted Average | 15.4 | 15.9 | 10.2 | 1.02 | 0.94 | 0.90 |
Market Share in Terms of Clinker Capacity (2015)
-
East China:
- Anhui: 53.0%
- Fujian: 0.0%
- Jiangsu: 5.6%
- Jiangxi: 12.3%
- Shandong: 1.3%
- Zhejiang: 5.1%
- Shanghai: 0.0%
- Total: 17.7%
-
South Central China:
- Guangdong: 16.2%
- Guangxi: 22.0%
- Hainan: 0.0%
- Hunan: 26.4%
- Hubei: 0.0%
- Henan: 0.0%
- Total: 12.1%
-
North China:
- Beijing: 0.0%
- Tianjin: 0.0%
- Hebei: 0.0%
- Shanxi: 0.0%
- Total: 0.0%
-
Northeast China:
- Heilongjiang: 0.0%
- Jilin: 0.0%
- Liaoning: 0.0%
- Total: 0.0%
-
Southwest China:
- Chongqing: 3.2%
- Sichuan: 4.4%
- Guizhou: 9.6%
- Yunnan: 3.0%
- Tibet: 0.0%
- Total: 20.2%
-
Northwest China:
- Gansu: 3.2%
- Shaanxi: 5.1%
- Qinghai: 0.0%
- Ningxia: 0.0%
- Xinjiang: 0.4%
- Total: 8.7%
-
Grand Total: 100.0%
Summary
- Cement prices were largely flat last week, with some regional fluctuations.
- Xinjiang is the first region in China to eliminate grade 32.5 cement, with a capacity reduction target of 5 million tonnes in 2017.
- Xinjiang's advantage in standard upgrading comes from its heavy reliance on infrastructure projects.
- Cement stocks showed positive performance, with BBMG and CR Cement being top performers.
- The valuation table and peer comparison highlight different growth prospects, price-to-earnings ratios, and EV/EBITDA multiples for various cement companies.
- Anhui Conch and BBMG have significant market share in their respective regions.
- Sinoma Group is the market leader in Xinjiang, with 32.2% of the clinker market share as of end-2015.
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