2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Montenegro_Technical_Assistance_Report_31页_888kb

MONTENEGRO: MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICY FRAMEWORK SUMMARY

Core Content

This technical assistance report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) outlines recommendations for establishing a macroprudential policy framework in Montenegro. It emphasizes the need for a clear governance structure, enhanced interagency cooperation, improved data collection, and the development of appropriate policy tools to support financial stability.

Montenegro, a small euroized economy, faces challenges in building a robust macroprudential framework due to limited resources, including human capital, and the need to align with EU standards. The report highlights that the Central Bank of Montenegro (CBM) should be the primary authority responsible for macroprudential policy, given its existing financial stability mandate and analytical capacity.

Main Points

1. Governance Framework

• The CBM should be assigned the macroprudential policy mandate.
• The mandate should be clearly defined in a single published document that outlines objectives, indicators, and instruments.
• The Parliamentary Committee on Economy, Finance and Budget should be involved annually in reviewing the CBM's financial stability outlook and policy actions.

2. Institutional Arrangements

• The Financial Stability Council (FSC) should be strengthened, with the Deposit Protection Fund (DPF) considered for permanent membership to improve crisis management and contingency planning.
• The FSC should play a broader role in addressing financial stability issues, such as corporate governance and insolvency.
• Consolidation of financial oversight responsibilities in the CBM is recommended to improve efficiency and reduce costs, given Montenegro's small size.

3. Resourcing

• The CBM should be allocated more resources and support for financial stability analysis.
• The IMF Training program could assist in enhancing the technical capabilities of CBM staff.

4. Risk Monitoring and Analysis

• The CBM should focus on key macroprudential indicators and make the monitoring process more forward-looking.
• There is a need to monitor credit and nonfinancial sector indebtedness more closely.
• The credit registry is a valuable data source for assessing systemic risks.
• Stress testing should be further strengthened, with better use of credit registry data.
• A work plan should be developed to close data gaps in real estate prices, capital flows, and flow of funds data, in collaboration with the Statistical Office of Montenegro (Monstat).

5. Prudential Policy Tools

• The CBM should be granted powers under CRR/CRD IV to implement macroprudential tools.
• The CBM should use its authority to maintain sound lending standards, including setting limits on loan-to-value (LTV) and debt-service-to-income (DSTI) ratios for housing loans.
• The FSI and FSR should be streamlined to focus more on financial stability.

Key Recommendations

Key Information

• Financial Stability is the central objective of macroprudential policy in Montenegro.
• The CBM has the necessary microprudential powers to support macroprudential functions.
• Data gaps are a significant challenge, particularly in real estate prices, capital flows, and flow of funds.
• Interagency cooperation is essential, with the FSC and DPF playing important roles.
• Scenario design and stress testing should be enhanced to better assess systemic vulnerabilities.
• The FSC should be strengthened to provide more comprehensive recommendations on financial stability.
• Consolidation of financial oversight may be beneficial for cost efficiency and effectiveness.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while Montenegro has the foundation for a macroprudential policy framework, it requires a clear mandate, enhanced analytical capacity, improved data collection, and strong interagency cooperation to effectively manage financial risks. The CBM is well positioned to lead this effort, and the recommendations aim to support its transition to a more proactive and comprehensive macroprudential policy approach.