2010年-世界发展银行全球_Taking_Stock_December_2010___An_Update_on_Vietnams_Recent_Economic_Developments_26页_974kb

Summary of Vietnam's Recent Economic Developments (World Bank Report, 2010)

Core Content

Vietnam's economy has shown resilience and strong growth in the post-global economic crisis period, but this growth has come with increasing macroeconomic risks. The report, Taking Stock, provides a retrospective analysis of Vietnam's economic performance and outlines policy responses to address challenges.

Main Points

I. Rapid Growth Amidst Rising Risks

• Growth Performance: Vietnam's economy has maintained a reasonably rapid and stable growth rate post-crisis, with real GDP growth of 5.3% in 2009 and projected growth of 6.5–6.7% in 2010.
• Comparative Growth: Vietnam's growth outperforms many other EAP countries, but its recovery from the 2009 downturn appears less robust than those of countries that had negative growth.
• Macroeconomic Risks: Despite growth, Vietnam faces high inflation (10–11% in 2010), currency depreciation, falling foreign exchange reserves, underperforming stock market, high sovereign spreads, and a relatively high current account deficit (CAD) to GDP ratio.
• Key Drivers: The growth has been supported by strong domestic and external demand, with the government implementing a stimulus package including low interest rates, liquidity injections, tax reductions, and public investment.

II. Underpinning of the Recovery Process

• Sectoral Growth:
  • Industry and Construction: Growth slowed in 2008–2009 but rebounded to over 7% in 2010.
  • Agriculture: Growth dropped from 4.7% in 2008 to 1.8% in 2009, then rebounded to 2.8% in 2010.
  • Services: Grew at 7.2% in the first nine months of 2010, driven by retail, tourism, and financial services.
• Aggregate Demand: Private consumption and investment remain the main drivers of demand, with net exports contributing modestly to growth due to slower import growth.
• Investment Trends: Total investment reached 19.8% growth in the first nine months of 2010, with non-state domestic investment accounting for 37% of total investment. However, concerns about the quality and sustainability of such high investment levels persist.
• FDI: FDI commitments declined from $72 billion in 2008 to $13 billion in 2010, due to weak global conditions and excess capacity in certain sectors.

III. Strong Revival in International Trade

• Export Growth:
  • Vietnam's total exports are expected to exceed their previous peak by nearly $10 billion in 2010, with a 24% annual growth rate.
  • Non-oil exports, which account for the majority of exports, have seen strong and broad-based growth, doubling in value since WTO accession.
  • The export basket is diversified, with growth in lesser-known sectors such as pre-fabricated steel and plastic products.
• Import Growth:
  • Imports grew by around 20% in 2010, driven by demand for raw materials and intermediate inputs.
  • Capital goods and agricultural inputs saw weaker or negative growth due to domestic production and investment decisions.
• Trade Partners:
  • China is expected to become Vietnam's largest trading partner in 2010, surpassing ASEAN.
  • Vietnam still relies heavily on developed countries for exports, accounting for nearly two-thirds of its total exports.
  • Efforts to diversify into developing markets have shown some success.

IV. Moderation of the External Balances

• Trade Deficit: The trade deficit to GDP ratio declined from 21.3% in 2007 to 13.8% in 2009, and is expected to fall further to 12% of GDP in 2010.
• Current Account Deficit: CAD peaked at 11.9% in 2008 and is expected to fall to 7.5% in 2010.
• Structural Concerns: The CAD is structural and linked to Vietnam's development stage, with potential long-term challenges in maintaining balance.

V. Foreign Exchange Pressure Intensifies

• Currency Depreciation: The dong has depreciated by nearly one-third against the US dollar over three years, with persistent pressure in the parallel market.
• Exchange Rate Misalignment: The REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate) has not significantly appreciated compared to Asian peers, suggesting that the currency is not overvalued.
• Balance of Payments: The large "Errors and Omissions (E&O)" in the balance of payments indicate that capital is not being effectively used to finance the CAD.
• Policy Implications: Addressing inflation, improving investment efficiency, enhancing competitiveness, and fiscal consolidation are key to long-term stability.

VI. Will Inflation Accelerate Further?

• Inflation Trends: Inflation reached 11.1% in November 2010, with food price inflation at 14.8%, the highest since April 2009.
• Drivers of Inflation:
  • Rising global commodity prices and a depreciating currency have amplified inflationary pressures.
  • Domestic supply shocks, such as floods, have also contributed to price increases.
• Inflation Target: The National Assembly set an 8% inflation target for 2010, but the inflation rate is expected to approach 10.5% due to these factors.

Key Information

• GDP Growth: Expected to exceed 6.5% in 2010, with a nominal GDP surpassing $100 billion.
• Inflation: Reached 11.1% in November 2010, with a target of 8%.
• Exchange Rate: Dong depreciated significantly against USD and ASEAN currencies.
• Trade Deficit: Expected to shrink to 12% of GDP in 2010.
• Current Account Deficit: Projected to fall to 7.5% of GDP in 2010.
• FDI: Commitments dropped from $72 billion in 2008 to $13 billion in 2010.
• Investment: Non-state domestic investment accounts for 37% of total investment.
• Trade Partners: China is expected to surpass ASEAN as the largest trading partner in 2010.
• Policy Focus: The report emphasizes the need for better monetary policy, improved fiscal discipline, and structural reforms to ensure sustainable growth and macroeconomic stability.