驱动越南_越南乘用车市场是否换挡_（英文版）_19页_4mb

报告摘要

Summary of "DRIVING VIETNAM: IS VIETNAM'S PASSENGER VEHICLE MARKET SHIFTING GEARS?"

Core Content

Vietnam's passenger vehicle market has experienced rapid growth from 2012 to 2016, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of ~38%, making it the fastest-growing in Southeast Asia. This growth is driven by macroeconomic expansion, a rising middle class with disposable income, and liberalized trade policies that reduce import tariffs and increase affordability.

Despite this growth, the market faces several challenges and headwinds, including:

High consumption taxes on vehicles with engines above 2.0l, which are increasing to address pollution and congestion.
Underdeveloped supporting industries that limit domestic manufacturing and increase reliance on imports.
Increasing costs due to a combination of taxes and fees, which make passenger vehicles in Vietnam more expensive than in neighboring countries like Thailand and Indonesia.

Main Viewpoints

Market Growth and Trends

Vietnam's passenger vehicle market is expected to continue growing, with sales projected to reach ~225,000 units by 2020.
Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City account for ~45% of total registered passenger vehicles, despite representing only ~17% of the population and contributing ~35% to the national GDP.
Toyota dominates the market and is one of the early entrants, with Toyota Vios being the most popular model.
Japanese and Korean brands are the main players in the market, due to their affordable pricing, while European brands struggle with higher costs and lack of local assembly.

Aftermarket Opportunities

The aftermarket sector is expected to benefit from the growing number of vehicles, as spare parts demand is rising.
Import value of car parts increased by ~20% CAGR from 2012 to 2015.
Poor infrastructure and traffic congestion create a need for spare parts like brakes, tires, and accumulators.
Independent workshops are expanding, creating more opportunities for aftermarket suppliers.

Trade and Tax Impacts

ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and WTO agreements are reducing import tariffs, which will lower the cost of small passenger vehicles.
Luxury vehicles are not affected by these tariff cuts due to their origin and import taxes.
Special Consumption Tax (SCT) changes favor small engine capacity vehicles, which are more fuel-efficient and environmentally friendly.

Key Information

Market Overview

Passenger vehicle density per 1,000 people in 2016 was 341, lower than Malaysia (55) and Thailand (196).
Sales growth in 2015-2016 was 38% for Vietnam, while Indonesia and Thailand saw 5% and 36% growth respectively.
Motorbike sales increased by 9.5% in 2016, but the passenger vehicle market is growing faster.

Tax and Fees Structure

Vietnamese consumers face 3 types of taxes and 5 different fees when purchasing a passenger vehicle.
Import tariffs for CBU (Complete Built Unit) vehicles are expected to drop to 0% in 2018.
SCT for small engines (under 2.0l) is reduced to 40%, while for larger engines it is increased to 55-150%.

Local Manufacturing

Localization rates in Vietnam are low, with only ~30% of car parts sourced locally.
Thailand and Indonesia have significantly higher localization rates (80-85%).
CKD (Completely Knocked Down) units are 20-25% more expensive than CBU imports due to higher taxes and fees.

Future Outlook

The passenger vehicle market will continue to grow as Vietnam's income per capita approaches USD 3,000.
Aftermarket opportunities are increasing due to the expansion of independent workshops and the aging vehicle fleet.
Fuel retail and automotive services will open new opportunities for foreign players as the market liberalizes.

Key Takeaways

Rapid growth in the passenger vehicle market is expected to continue.
High taxes and fees are a major barrier to growth and may further limit vehicle ownership.
Japanese and Korean brands are currently leading the market due to affordability and local assembly.
Small engine vehicles are favored by new regulations, which aim to reduce pollution and fuel consumption.
Local manufacturing remains underdeveloped, leading to import dependency.
Aftermarket demand will increase as the number of vehicles grows and more move out of warranty.
Trade agreements and tax reforms will reshape the market landscape, with small vehicles benefiting the most.