【东南亚研究所_ISEAS_】2024年东南亚国家态势调查报告_76页_11mb

Summary of the 2024 Survey Report on the State of Southeast Asia

Introduction

The 2024 State of Southeast Asia survey, conducted by the ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, gauges perceptions and views on geopolitical developments, economic challenges, and ASEAN's role in Southeast Asia. With 1,994 respondents from ten ASEAN countries, it highlights snapshots of prevailing attitudes among policymakers and informed publics, emphasizing the region's navigation through global power dynamics.

Key Findings

• Economic and Geopolitical Concerns: Unemployment and economic recession are the top challenges (57.7%), followed by climate change (53.4%) and intensifying economic tensions between major powers (47.0%). Geopolitically, the Israel-Hamas conflict and South China Sea aggression rank highest, driven by supply chain disruptions and security worries.
• ASEAN's Role: Southeast Asians express concern about ASEAN's unity and effectiveness (77.0%), with perceptions varying by country. China emerges as a preferred strategic partner (50.5%), outweighing the US (49.5%), reflecting economic reliance and strategic alignment.
• Trust Dynamics: China exhibits high distrust (50.1%), with worries about its ability to threaten sovereignty, while Japan and the US show moderate trust but declining confidence due to US-China rivalry and internal distractions. The EU and India face mixed views based on regional interests.
• Soft Power Preferences: Over a quarter prefer living or working in ASEAN countries (22.4%), with Singapore being the top choice; Japan is the favorite travel destination (30.4%), signaling its cultural and economic appeal.

Methodology and Sample

• Respondents: A mix of academics, private sector, government officials, civil society, and international organizations; 58.8% hold Bachelor's degrees.
• Weighting: Responses weighted to ensure equal representation, focusing on perceptions rather than demographics in analysis.

Conclusion

The survey underscores Southeast Asia's pivotal position in global power competition, with most respondents prioritizing economic stability and ASEAN unity amid rising tensions. Preferences for relocation and tourism reflect both regional integration and ties with global powers like Japan, highlighting the interplay of soft and hard power in shaping regional dynamics.