20240325-西牛证券-英恒科技-01760.HK-Cautious_outlook_in_operation_6页_185kb

Intron (01760.HK) Research Summary

Key Financial Highlights

• Revenue YoY Growth: 20.1% in 2023 to RMB 5,802.3mn (estimate: YoY increase; 2024E: 17.9% growth)
• Gross Margin (GM): Plummeted to 18.7% in 2023 from prior year, expected to fluctuate between 18.2%-19.4% (2024-2026E)
• Net Profit: 2023 FY at RMB 312.5mn, projected to decline due to ongoing pressures; significant cut in EPS expectations
• Balance Sheet: Financial leverage increasing, D/E ratio stands at 48.1% (2023), target price HK$2.85

Market Performance

• Stock Price Trend: Down ~56.7% over last year, below 52-week low
• Relative to HSI: Negative performance (-41.0% YoY)
• Target Price: HK$2.85 (revised from previous target)

Risk Factors

• Intense competition leading to reduced pricing and profit margin
• Slow ADAS adoption due to downstream market price war
• Tightening working capital and heavy financial costs
• High R&D expenses impacting margins

Analyst Recommendation

• Stock Rating: BUY
• Price Target: HK$2.85
• Cautious outlook: Reflecting operational difficulties due to industry competition

Financial Projections (2024E)

• Revenue growth projected: 17.9% YoY
• Expected margin pressure from continued cost adjustments and intense competition

Peer Comparison

• Gross Margin: Intron at 18.7% (18.2% in 2024E)
• Semi-suppliers: Competitors (e.g., Infineon) showing higher margins, but Intron aligns with industry declines