战略与国际研究中心-China-s--Belt-and-Road--Initiative-Must-Become-a-Strategy_12页_972kb

报告摘要

One Belt, One Road (OBOR): China's Regional Integration Initiative

Core Content

The One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative, launched by China in 2013, is a large-scale regional integration strategy aimed at enhancing connectivity across Asia, Africa, and Europe through infrastructure development, trade facilitation, and financial cooperation. It is designed to promote a more inclusive and flexible approach to global governance, distinct from traditional treaty-based integration models.

Main Views

Geopolitical and Economic Drivers:
OBOR was initiated in response to China's complex geopolitical environment, including tensions with Japan and the US pivot to Asia, as well as economic challenges such as slowing growth and the need for new markets. It also aims to address internal imbalances between China's coastal and inland provinces and to secure energy routes in the South China Sea.
Geographical Extension and Corridor Design:
OBOR comprises two main components: the Silk Road Economic Belt, an overland route connecting China to Europe via Central Asia and Russia; and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, a sea route connecting China to Europe via Southeast Asia, India, and Africa. The initiative includes six economic corridors, with varying levels of development and integration with existing projects.
Political and Financial Cooperation Mechanisms:
OBOR utilizes existing regional organizations like the ASEAN, SCO, and FOCAC, as well as new multilateral institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). It also involves financial cooperation with the EU, including the EU-China Connectivity Platform, and leverages China's vast financial resources, including its sovereign wealth fund and foreign exchange reserves.
Significance for China:
OBOR is seen as a strategic tool to enhance China's geopolitical influence, economic leverage, and national security. It aims to promote socio-economic development in underdeveloped western provinces, reduce income inequality, and counter terrorism and separatism in Xinjiang. It also provides a means for China to assert its leadership in Asia and to diversify its trade routes to reduce dependence on the South China Sea.
Significance for the EU:
OBOR has the potential to reshape trade and investment patterns in Eurasia, Africa, and the Middle East. The EU is concerned about China's growing influence in these regions but is also seeking to engage with OBOR through coordinated policies and shared initiatives. The EU-China Connectivity Platform aims to foster cooperation and define joint strategies for infrastructure and trade.

Key Information

Geographical Scope: OBOR includes 65 countries and covers 4.4 billion people, with a focus on Asia, Africa, and Europe.
Financial Commitments: China has committed significant capital, including the New Silk Road Fund (US$40 billion), China-ASEAN Investment Cooperation Fund (US$20 billion), and China-CEE Investment Cooperation Fund (US$3 billion).
Economic Impact: OBOR is expected to boost trade and stimulate economic growth in participating countries, while also helping China rebalance its economy towards domestic consumption and innovation.
Challenges:
- Political Risks: Scepticism from regional rivals like India and Japan due to concerns over China's hegemonic ambitions.
- Security Concerns: Risks associated with building infrastructure in conflict zones or remote areas.
- Economic Risks: Potential for financial overstretch, corruption, and low-return projects due to market immaturity and complex logistics.

Outlook

OBOR is a long-term initiative with projects expected to take 30–35 years to complete. Its success will depend on cooperation, transparency, and mutual benefits between China and its partners. While it presents opportunities for economic growth and regional stability, it also raises geopolitical tensions and security concerns that need to be carefully managed.