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CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST: Episode 59 Summary

Core Content

This episode of the China in the World Podcast features an interview with Dr. Xie Tao, a political science professor at Beijing Foreign Studies University, discussing the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The conversation explores the origins, perception, and implications of the initiative in both China and the international community.

Main Points of Discussion

1. Origins and Initial Reception of the BRI

• The Belt and Road Initiative was first proposed by President Xi Jinping in late 2013 during speeches in Kazakhstan and Indonesia.
• Initially, the initiative received little attention both within China and internationally, as Chinese leaders were focused on other policies like the "new type of great power relationship" with the U.S.
• The Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee in November 2013 marked a turning point, as the BRI was included in the official policy document, signaling its importance.

2. Rise in Attention and Analysis

• By 2014, there was minimal analysis of the BRI.
• By 2015, the number of Chinese analysts writing about it had increased tenfold, indicating a growing recognition of its significance.
• The Boao Forum in 2015 saw the release of an official vision and action plan, further solidifying the initiative's status.

3. Chinese Government's Terminology and Intentions

• The Chinese government refuses to label the BRI as a "strategy," instead calling it an "initiative".
• The term "initiative" is chosen to emphasize openness and public good, as opposed to the connotation of secrecy associated with the word "strategy."
• The government aims to avoid scrutiny from the U.S. and Europe by framing the BRI as a collaborative effort rather than a geopolitical maneuver.

4. Economic vs. Geopolitical Motivations

• The BRI has economic components, such as exporting excess capacity and investing in infrastructure.
• However, economic interests inherently lead to geopolitical interests, as China's investments in foreign countries inevitably involve political engagement.
• The BRI is not solely about geopolitical strategy, but it is geopolitically significant, especially in regions like Central Asia and South Asia.

5. Potential for U.S.-China Cooperation

• The U.S. has not been a major participant in the BRI, and there is no obvious path for cooperation.
• The BRI is not aimed at the U.S. or Europe, but rather at underdeveloped countries.
• The U.S. is not seen as a target country for the BRI, and China is not inviting the U.S. to join in a formal way.

6. Russia's Role and Potential Tensions

• The BRI passes through regions historically of interest to Russia, such as Central Asia.
• Russia has traditionally viewed Central Asia as its sphere of influence, while China seeks to maintain its own preeminence in the region.
• There is a potential for tension as both countries have different strategic interests in Central Asia.
• The China-Russia oil and gas deal highlights this dynamic, with China facing financial losses and Russia relying on the deal for funding.

Key Takeaways

• The Belt and Road Initiative has evolved from a peripheral idea to a central policy in China's foreign relations.
• The Chinese government emphasizes openness and inclusivity to avoid the perception of secretive strategy.
• While the BRI is not solely a geopolitical strategy, it carries significant geopolitical implications, especially in regions like Central Asia.
• The U.S. is not a key player in the BRI, and there is limited potential for cooperation.
• Russia is a key player in the region, and its historical influence may create tensions with China's growing presence.

Conclusion

Dr. Xie Tao's analysis underscores the complexity of the BRI, highlighting its economic, geopolitical, and diplomatic dimensions. The initiative, while framed as a public good, has strategic underpinnings that reflect China's broader ambitions in global influence and infrastructure development. The absence of U.S. involvement and the potential for Russian resistance suggest that the BRI will continue to be a contentious and evolving aspect of international relations.