2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Ireland_Fourth_Post_36页_1mb

Ireland: Fourth Post-Program Monitoring Discussions Summary

Core Content

The Fourth Post-Program Monitoring (PPM) discussions with Ireland, conducted by the IMF Executive Board in January 2016, assessed the country's economic recovery and policy implementation following the 2015 program. The discussions concluded that Ireland had achieved robust economic growth and made progress in fiscal consolidation and financial sector repair, although vulnerabilities and risks still remained.

Main Points

Economic Recovery

• Growth: Ireland's economy continued to improve at a strong pace, with real GDP expanding by 7 percent year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2015. The recovery became more broad-based in 2015, with domestic demand overtaking net trade as the main growth driver.
• Employment: Job growth was steady, reaching about 3 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, reducing the unemployment rate to 8.8 percent in December.
• Fiscal Performance: The fiscal targets were outperformed due to strong tax revenue and lower-than-expected interest payments. The headline deficit for 2015 was projected at 1.9 percent of GDP, significantly below the 2.7 percent budget target.
• Public Debt: Public debt was expected to fall below 100 percent of GDP by the end of 2015, a notable improvement from the 3rd PPM discussion.

Financial Sector and Housing Market

• Banking Sector: Banks' asset quality improved, and mortgage arrears continued to decline, but profitability remained modest and loan portfolios were still contracting.
• Housing Market: Property prices have risen, but remain below pre-boom levels. Residential property markets showed some moderation due to macroprudential measures, while commercial real estate prices continued to rise, driven by foreign investment.
• Macroprudential Measures: These were effective in reducing speculative demand and moderating price expectations, but further adjustments may be needed as economic conditions evolve.

Outlook and Risks

• Outlook: The economic outlook is positive, with growth projected to decelerate gradually to 2.5–3 percent. The output gap is expected to turn positive in 2016.
• Risks: Risks are broadly balanced, but include potential disruptive asset price shifts due to global growth reassessments, geopolitical developments, and U.S. monetary policy normalization. A prolonged accommodative ECB policy could amplify the Irish business cycle, while weak growth in emerging markets could have second-round effects.

Key Information

Fiscal Policy

• Budget 2016: Envisages a gradual fiscal consolidation and debt reduction, aiming for a structural balance by 2018.
• Fiscal Deficit: Expected to fall to 0.9 percent of GDP in 2016 and reach a surplus of 0.3 percent in 2018.
• Tax Revenue: Exceeded budget projections, with strong contributions from corporate income tax (CIT) and value-added tax (VAT).
• Expenditure: Remained broadly in line with the original budget, with some overruns offset by lower interest costs.
• Fiscal Space: Should be used to accelerate debt reduction and build buffers for external shocks.

Economic Indicators (2010–2016)

Risks and Vulnerabilities

• Debt Levels: Public and private sector debt remain high, necessitating continued efforts to rebuild economic resilience.
• Financial Conditions: Despite ECB quantitative easing, financial conditions remain supportive, but vulnerabilities persist.
• Housing Market: While housing supply measures are welcomed, rent controls could deter new construction.

Conclusion

Ireland's economic recovery has been robust, with strong GDP growth, declining unemployment, and improved fiscal performance. However, the country still faces challenges in reducing public and private sector debt, managing financial sector risks, and maintaining fiscal discipline. The IMF endorsed the staff appraisal and encouraged the use of fiscal space to further reduce debt and build resilience against external shocks.