2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Ireland_Staff_Report_for_the_Third_post_32页_1006kb

Summary of IMF Third Post-Program Monitoring Discussions with Ireland

Core Content

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Third Post-Program Monitoring Discussions with Ireland on June 19, 2015, following a strong economic recovery in 2014 with a growth rate of 4.8%. The discussions were conducted on a lapse-of-time basis, and the staff report was completed on June 5, 2015.

Ireland's economy showed continued robustness in 2015, with growth driven by domestic demand and exports, and employment rising by 2.2% year-on-year. The unemployment rate fell to 9.8% in May. Tax revenues increased by 11% year-on-year, and the fiscal deficit for 2015 was expected to be 2.3% of GDP, which is better than the budget target. The IMF emphasized the need for continued fiscal restraint and the importance of maintaining the momentum toward fiscal balance.

Main Views

• Economic Recovery:

  • Ireland's economy is recovering strongly, with growth expected to remain at around 4% in 2015.
  • High-frequency indicators suggest sustained recovery momentum.
  • Job creation and a decline in unemployment are positive signs.

• Fiscal Policy:

  • The 2015 budget outturns are off to a good start, with the deficit expected to be below target.
  • The authorities have revised their 2016 deficit target to 1.7% of GDP, which is considered too modest given the high public debt and strong growth.
  • Revenue outperformance should be saved to avoid delaying fiscal adjustment.
  • Tax reforms should focus on areas that support job creation and productivity while protecting progress in broadening the tax base.

• Financial Sector:

  • Bank health has improved, but profitability remains weak.
  • Nonperforming loans (NPLs) have fallen significantly in 2014, but they still constitute a large portion of the loan portfolio.
  • Mortgage arrears remain high, with 17.1% of mortgages in arrears for over 90 days, and a large share of these have been in arrears for over two years.
  • The Central Bank of Ireland's shift to bank-by-bank mortgage supervision is welcomed, but more efficient repossession processes and legal proceedings are needed.

• Exchange Rates and Financial Conditions:

  • Financial conditions remain highly supportive, aided by the ECB's quantitative easing (QE).
  • Sovereign bond yields have declined, with some reaching near-zero for maturities up to five years.
  • The euro depreciation has contributed to improved export performance and terms of trade.

• Mortgage Resolution:

  • Mortgage lending is reviving, but house price increases have moderated.
  • Commercial real estate prices continue to rise rapidly due to strong demand from nonbank investors.
  • Efforts to resolve mortgage arrears should be intensified, and the disposal of state shareholdings in domestic banks is seen as a way to reduce public debt.

• Long-Term Outlook:

  • Medium-term fiscal adjustment challenges remain due to demographic pressures and the need for public investment to avoid growth bottlenecks.
  • The authorities are expected to address these through tax reforms and spending control.
  • The mission recommended improving transparency in medium-term fiscal projections and ensuring that fiscal adjustments align with EU rules.

Key Information

• GDP Growth: Ireland's GDP growth was 4.8% in 2014 and is expected to be around 4% in 2015, with a projected 3.3% in 2016.
• Fiscal Deficit: The 2015 deficit is expected to be 2.3% of GDP, and the 2016 target is 1.7% of GDP.
• Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate dropped to 9.8% in May 2015, indicating improvement in the labor market.
• Public Debt: General government gross debt is expected to decrease to 100.5% of GDP by 2016.
• Nonperforming Loans: NPLs fell by 19% in 2014, but they still represent 23% of total loans.
• Bank Capital: The three domestic banks have improved their core tier 1 capital ratio to 14.5% due to lower risk-weighted assets and provision releases.
• Export Growth: Goods exports increased by 17.4% year-on-year in Q1 2015, driven by euro depreciation and carryovers from 2014.
• QE Impact: The ECB's QE has had a significant impact on Ireland's financial markets, particularly through exchange rate depreciation and bond yields.
• Public Sector Reforms: The authorities have committed to a gradual unwinding of savings in public sector wages and continued efficiency gains.

Tables and Figures

• Selected Economic Indicators (2010-16): Show GDP growth, employment, and public finance data over the years.
• Real GDP Growth Projections: Indicate that growth is expected to remain strong, with a 4% projection for 2015 and 3.3% for 2016.
• Fiscal Adjustment: Staff estimates show a structural primary balance improvement of 1.9% of GDP in 2015 and a modest 0.6% in 2016.
• Bank Financial Indicators: Highlight the improvement in bank capital and profitability, with NPLs remaining high.
• Mortgage Resolution Progress: Emphasize the need for continued efforts in resolving mortgage arrears and improving the personal insolvency regime.

Conclusion

The IMF's staff report and press release indicate that Ireland's economy is on a solid recovery path, with continued growth and improved fiscal performance. However, challenges remain in maintaining fiscal balance, improving bank profitability, and resolving mortgage arrears. The authorities are advised to focus on sustainable fiscal adjustment, revenue enhancement, and structural reforms to support long-term growth and stability.