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The Future of Israeli-Turkish Relations Summary

Core Content

This report, authored by Shira Efron and published by the RAND Corporation, provides an in-depth analysis of Israeli-Turkish relations, with a particular focus on the Israeli perspective. It assesses the state of bilateral ties and their future prospects, especially in the context of the 2016 normalization agreement and the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Main Points

Historical Context

• 1948–1990: Israel-Turkey relations were limited and covert, with Turkey being one of the first Muslim-majority countries to recognize Israel in 1949. However, due to Arab opposition, engagement remained cautious.
• 1990s: The relationship evolved into a strategic partnership, driven by mutual interests in countering regional threats, especially from Syria. Military and economic cooperation deepened.
• 2000s: The Israeli-Turkish "honeymoon" ended due to the Second Intifada, the rise of the AKP, and the 2006 Lebanon War. Tensions escalated, particularly over the Gaza issue.

Normalization in 2016

• The normalization of relations in 2016 was the result of a six-year reconciliation process.
• Key motivations included economic interests, especially an energy deal that would allow Israel to export gas and Turkey to serve as a key transit point for Europe.
• The U.S. and regional concerns about the Assad regime and its allies (Russia, Iran, Hezbollah) also played a role in encouraging rapprochement.

Post-Normalization Developments

• Economic Relations: Despite political tensions, trade and tourism have grown. However, energy cooperation has waned as Israel explores alternatives like the EastMed pipeline.
• Security and Diplomatic Relations: Security cooperation has not resumed, and the two countries remain divided on key issues such as the Palestinian issue, Kurdish independence, and Syria.
• Diplomatic Tensions: The May 2018 crisis, following Israeli military actions in Gaza, led to the expulsion of diplomats and heightened rhetoric. Turkey accused Israel of terrorism, while Israel criticized Turkey for its support of Kurdish independence and its ties to Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood.

Key Issues of Division

• Palestinian Issue: The status of Palestine is a central point of contention. Turkey's strong support for the Palestinian cause contrasts with Israel's security concerns.
• Syria and Iran: Both countries are wary of Assad's potential victory and the influence of Iran and Hezbollah. However, Turkey's shift toward a Russian-Turkish-Iranian agreement (Astana process) has raised concerns among U.S. and Arab allies.
• Kurdish Independence: Israel's support for Kurdish independence has been a major source of Turkish hostility, particularly since the 2016 rapprochement.
• Regional Alliances: Turkey's ideological links with the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas have caused distrust among key Sunni Arab allies like Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, with whom Israel has developed backchannel cooperation.

Key Challenges

• Deep Mistrust: The mutual distrust between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan remains a significant barrier to closer cooperation.
• U.S. Relations: The U.S. has traditionally supported close ties between Israel and Turkey, but relations have deteriorated since the 2016 coup attempt, and Turkey's actions have strained its partnership with Washington.
• Energy Cooperation: Turkey has sought to reduce its reliance on Russian gas, but this has not led to renewed cooperation with Israel. Instead, Turkey is advancing projects like TurkStream and Akkuyu nuclear plant with Russian support.
• International Perception: Israel's public support for Kurdish independence and its stance on the Palestinian issue have led to accusations of meddling in Turkish politics.

Prospects for the Future

• Economic Cooperation: While economic ties have improved, the potential for deeper collaboration on sensitive security and diplomatic issues remains low.
• Political Differences: The core political differences, especially regarding the Palestinian issue and Kurdish independence, are unlikely to be resolved soon.
• U.S. Interests: The U.S. has a vested interest in maintaining Israeli-Turkish cooperation, but the current state of relations complicates this goal.
• Long-Term Outlook: From Israel's perspective, the relationship is likely to remain stable but low-profile as long as Erdoğan remains in power. Reconciliation of political differences may take years.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while the 2016 normalization has improved economic ties between Israel and Turkey, the deep political and ideological divides remain unresolved. The future of Israeli-Turkish relations is uncertain and fraught with challenges, particularly due to the ongoing tensions over the Palestinian issue, Kurdish independence, and Syria. The U.S. and its allies in the region are affected by this dynamic, as the reliability of Turkey as a strategic partner is in question.