2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Chile_Selected_Issues_54页_1mb

Chile: 2011 Article IV Consultation Summary

Core Content

This document is a Selected Issues Paper prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for Chile, focusing on the real exchange rate and external competitiveness, capital inflows, and the impact of dynamic provisions on the Chilean banking system. The analysis is based on data up to July 8, 2011, and includes methodological details and references to supporting data sources.

Main Findings

1. Real Exchange Rate and External Competitiveness

• Exchange Rate Appreciation: Chile's peso appreciated over 50% against the U.S. dollar since 2003, with the real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciating by 20%.
• Fundamentals Alignment: The real exchange rate is broadly in line with economic fundamentals, according to the IMF's CGER methodologies.
• Sectoral Analysis:
  • Agricultural Sector: Remained competitive despite appreciation, with the real exchange rate fluctuating around long-term averages.
  • Industrial Sector: Faced stronger competitive pressures, especially from the import side, with relative real output declining since 2003.
  • Mining Sector: Real exchange rate depreciated slightly after 2003, and export prices were significantly higher than domestic wholesale prices.
• Competitiveness Drivers:
  • Export diversification and trade liberalization helped maintain competitiveness in non-mining exports.
  • Free trade agreements (FTAs) with major trading partners increased competitiveness in FTA markets.
  • The industrial sector needs to diversify into higher-value products to sustain growth.

2. Capital Inflows and Domestic Credit

• Capital Inflows: The exchange rate regime and capital flows are linked, with appreciation driven by improvements in terms of trade and net foreign assets (NFA).
• Domestic Credit: The appreciation of the real exchange rate did not negatively impact competitiveness if accompanied by quality improvements or demand increases.
• Credit Composition: The structure of domestic credit and its transmission through the exchange rate is influenced by the trade regime and the composition of credit in the economy.

3. Dynamic Provisions in the Banking System

• Purpose of Dynamic Provisions: To enhance bank solvency and reduce credit procyclicality.
• Spanish Formula: Serves as a reference for calculating minimum provision buffers.
• Simulation Analysis: Shows that dynamic provisions can help stabilize the banking system during economic cycles.
• Credit Cycle: Provisions are associated with reduced procyclicality, especially in the context of the Chilean credit cycle.

Key Information

• Copper Dominance: Copper exports dominated Chile's total exports, increasing from 36% in 2003 to 57% in 2010.
• Non-Mining Exports: Grew significantly, with industrial exports averaging 11.8% growth (2004–2010) and agricultural exports averaging 11.2% growth.
• Non-Mineral Trade Balance: Deteriorated due to faster growth in non-petroleum imports compared to exports.
• Export Diversification: Chile has diversified its export markets and products, which has helped maintain competitiveness.
• Import Composition: Imports from China and Brazil increased, while the U.S. share declined, especially in agricultural and industrial exports.
• Sectoral Competitiveness: The agricultural sector maintained competitiveness, while the industrial sector faced challenges due to rising import volumes and lower price competitiveness.
• External Sustainability: The current account is close to the equilibrium level, indicating a low misalignment. The exchange rate is considered to be in line with fundamentals.
• Policy Recommendations: Diversification into higher-value industrial products and services is critical to maintaining competitiveness and economic growth.

References

• Bems, R. and I. Carvalho Filho (2009a, 2009b)
• Berthelon, M. (2011)
• Bruha, J. and J. Podpiera (2011)
• Cincibuch, M. and J. Podpiera (2006)
• De Gregorio, J. (2010)
• Lee et al. (2008)
• Monfort, B. (2006)
• OECD (2010, 2011)

Appendices

• Methodology: Includes the CGER approach for real exchange rate assessment and the external sustainability model.
• Data Sources:
  • Real effective exchange rate data from the IMF's Statistics Department.
  • Productivity differentials from the IMF's CGER database.
  • Terms of trade and NFA data from the IMF's WEO database.
  • Import and export value indexes from Banco Central de Chile and Haver Analytics.

Tables and Figures

• Tables:
  • III.1: Unit root tests and extreme value distribution parameters for write-off series.
  • III.2: Minimum provision buffers and descriptive statistics.
  • III.3: Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for real GDP, real credit growth, and provisions.
• Figures:
  • I.1: Copper exports from 1990 to 2010.
  • I.2: Non-mining exports from 1996 to 2010.
  • I.3: Exchange rate assessment using CGER, 1996–2010.
  • I.4: Competitiveness in tradables, 1996–2010.
  • III.1: Minimum provision buffer and probability distributions.
  • III.2: Real GDP and domestic credit, 1998–2010.
  • III.3: Provisions to non-performing loans.
  • III.4: Real GDP, domestic credit, and provisions, percent deviations from HP trend.

Conclusion

• The real effective exchange rate is broadly in line with economic fundamentals.
• Sectoral analysis highlights that competitiveness varies, with the industrial sector facing the most pressure.
• Policy recommendations emphasize the need for further diversification into higher-value products and services to sustain economic growth.