战略与国际研究中心-The-Freeman-Chair-China-Report,-Issue-20-August-2017_5页_461kb

Freeman Chair China Report Summary (August 20, 2017)

Core Content

The Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a report analyzing China's economic reforms and their implications for global economic stability. The report highlights that while China has achieved remarkable economic growth over the past four decades, its current model is unsustainable and increasingly reliant on state intervention rather than market forces.

Main Points

Economic Performance and Challenges

• China's economy has grown faster than any other in history since the late 1970s.
• Growth has slowed significantly, averaging around 6.7% in 2016.
• Productivity has declined, with economic growth now driven by increased capital and labor rather than innovation or efficiency.
• The debt-to-GDP ratio has surged to over 280%, with potential to exceed 300%.

Strategies to Address Economic Stagnation

1. Reducing Overcapacity: Shrink the old economy by cutting back on heavy industrial sectors dominated by state-owned enterprises.
2. Expanding the New Economy: Support high-value-added services and advanced technologies.
3. Fiscal and Financial Reforms: Reform local government fiscal systems and tighten regulation of new financial instruments.

State Intervention and Its Impact

• Despite promises of market liberalization, the Chinese government has intensified state control through industrial policies and mercantilism.
• "Made in China 2025" and similar initiatives have led to massive investments in strategic industries.
• Foreign companies are increasingly targeted by China's industrial policies, leading to reduced welcome and a perception of "China wins, China wins."

U.S.-China Trade Relations

• The Trump administration abandoned the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a key tool for encouraging China's economic liberalization.
• China is expected to take small steps to reduce its trade surplus, such as buying more American goods, to avoid major penalties.
• There is a risk that the U.S. will push for real commitments from China to constrain its industrial policy, rather than accepting superficial concessions.

Risk of Global Instability

• Continued reliance on state-driven growth could lead to macroeconomic instability and volatility globally.
• A failure to reform could harm China's own economy and threaten the liberal international order.

Political Context

• Xi Jinping's leadership is characterized by a strong centralization of power and a shift toward protectionism and state control.
• There is speculation that Xi may be acting as a conservative nationalist to consolidate power, with potential for future liberalization, but this remains unlikely.

Key Information

• Recent Events: The Freeman Chair co-hosted several events in 2017, including discussions on cross-strait relations, U.S.-China economic relations, and China's innovation drive.
• Podcasts: CSIS hosted podcasts on China's economic and innovation policies, featuring experts like Scott Kennedy and Arthur Kroeber.
• Interactive Website: The China Innovation Policy Series (CIPS) provides in-depth analysis of China's technological innovation trends.

Conclusion

The report underscores the urgent need for China to shift from its current state-driven model toward a more market-oriented approach to sustain long-term growth and prevent global economic instability. It also highlights the challenges in U.S.-China economic negotiations and the importance of multilateral frameworks in encouraging reform. The continued dominance of state intervention threatens both China's economic future and the broader international order.