战略与国际研究中心-Freeman-Report-Feb-issue-2009_5页_440kb

FREEMAN REPORT Summary – February 2009

Core Content

The FREEMAN REPORT for February 2009 is a compilation of analyses, commentaries, and event summaries focused on China's domestic and international policies, economic challenges, and geopolitical relationships. It includes contributions from scholars and experts affiliated with the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), offering insights into China's development model, its response to the global financial crisis, and its engagement with neighboring and global regions.

Main Topics and Key Information

1. "Can the 'Chinese Model' Weather the Global Economic Storm?" by Wang Yong

• Overview: The article examines the "Chinese Model" in the context of the global financial crisis.
• Definition of the Chinese Model:
  • Prioritizes economic reform over political reform.
  • Maintains the CCP's ruling status while promoting ideological, economic, and social liberalization.
  • Retains public ownership of major banks and SOEs as "anchors of economic stability."
  • Central government retains control over local policies through authority over appointments.
• Successes of the Model:
  • Enabled China to maintain rapid economic growth despite the crisis.
  • Demonstrated resilience in the face of external shocks like the 2008 Sichuan earthquake.
• Challenges:
  • Environmental degradation.
  • Widening income inequality (Gini index).
  • Corruption.
  • Over-reliance on exports and foreign investment.
  • Insufficient domestic consumption.
• Government Response to the Crisis:
  • Prompt and unified intervention with a four-trillion-yuan stimulus package.
  • Focus on infrastructure, equipment renovation, and industrial upgrading.
  • Increased investment in rural areas and social welfare programs.
  • Use of media to manage public perception and maintain confidence.
• Conclusion: The Chinese Model is likely to help China avoid recession and social unrest, and its success may lead to a brighter future for the country.

2. "Wang Jiarui's New Year's Visit to Pyongyang and China's New Approach to North Korea" by Bonnie S. Glaser and Scott Snyder

• Overview: This article analyzes the significance of Wang Jiarui's visit to North Korea.
• Key Points:
  • The visit marked a return to direct ties with North Korea after a period of reduced contact following the 2006 nuclear test.
  • China is using its leverage over North Korea to stabilize relations and encourage cooperation.
  • The visit reflects a more flexible and pragmatic approach by Beijing toward North Korea.

3. "Commentary: Chasing the Currency Dragon" by Charles W. Freeman III

• Overview: Discusses the U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's criticism of China's currency practices.
• Key Points:
  • China's currency is undervalued, but the issue is more complex than it appears.
  • The article argues that blaming China for the global financial crisis without addressing U.S. fiscal imbalances is ineffective.
  • Emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to currency policy and economic cooperation.

4. Conference: China's Policy toward Southeast Asia and Its Relations with ASEAN

• Date: January 16, 2009
• Speaker: Dr. Ma Ying, Director of the Department of Asia-Pacific Studies at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies
• Moderator: Charles W. Freeman III
• Discussion Points:
  • China's policy toward Southeast Asia.
  • Impact of China-ASEAN relations on regional dynamics.
  • China's strategic interests in the region.

5. Freeman Facts: Traffic in Beijing

• Key Statistics:
  • 65,970 new cars registered in Beijing in the first 45 days of 2009 (vs. 1,302/day in 2008).
  • 3.56 million registered cars and 5.2 million registered drivers in Beijing.
  • China's car sales fell by 7.76% in January 2009 due to the economic downturn.
  • China had the highest road accident death rate per 10,000 vehicles in 2007.

Other Publications from the Freeman Chair

• "U.S.-China Relations: Ties Solid for Transition, but Challenges Lurk" (January 2009): Discusses developments in U.S.-China relations during the fourth quarter of 2008, including the 5th Strategic Economic Dialogue and discussions on the global financial crisis.
• "What Hu Jintao Should Expect: Predictions about Obama Administration Policy toward Taiwan" (January 2009): Analyzes potential U.S. policies toward Taiwan under the Obama administration.
• "Crafting U.S. Economic Strategy toward Asia: Lessons Learned from 30 Years of Experience" (October 2008): Reviews the U.S. economic strategy toward Asia over three decades.
• "China's Rise: Challenges and Opportunities" (September 2008): Explores the implications of China's rise for the U.S. and global order.
• "Promoting Confidence Building across the Taiwan Strait" (September 2008): Discusses efforts to build trust between China and Taiwan.
• "Assessing Chinese Government Response to the Challenge of Environment and Health" (June 2008): Reviews China's approach to environmental and health issues.
• "China-Europe Relations: Implications and Policy Responses for the United States" (May 2008): Analyzes the impact of China-Europe relations on U.S. interests.

Key Figures and Research Projects

• Freeman Chair in China Studies is a key initiative at CSIS, promoting research and policy analysis on China and East Asia.
• Current Research Projects include:
  • China's domestic challenges and their impact on U.S.-China relations.
  • The emergence of Chinese civil society and NGOs.
  • China's HIV/AIDS crisis and its implications.
  • Economic and financial tensions between the U.S. and China.
  • China's relations with Central Asia, Europe, and Africa.
  • China's military modernization and regional security.
  • U.S.-China-Taiwan relations.

Quote of the Month

"The causes for this financial crisis are obvious. The main causes are that some economies have imbalances in their economic structure. For a long period of time they have had dual deficits, trade deficit and fiscal deficit, and they have been overspending by borrowing."
– Wen Jiabao, Chinese Premier, speaking in the UK on February 2, 2009.

This quote highlights Premier Wen's criticism of U.S. economic policies and signals optimism about China's recovery from the crisis.