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Summary of FMCG Market Trends in Latin America (June 2018)

Core Content

The FMCG (Fast-Moving Consumer Goods) market in Latin America (Latam) has experienced a significant slowdown in growth over the past 18 months. Despite the region's overall economic indicators showing some stability, the market's volume growth has declined sharply, with consumption growing at a record low rate.

Key Findings

Volume Growth Decline

• Overall FMCG Volume Growth (Year ending March 2018): 0.8%
• Q1 2018 Growth: 0.5%, the slowest rate in the last 10 years.
• Long-term Trend: FMCG volume sales are growing at only 1-2% annually, down to a fifth of the 2016 growth rate (2.6%).
• Comparison to 2009: In 2009, FMCG volume sales increased by 8%, a stark contrast to current figures.

Country-Specific Performance

• Growth: Only three countries showed growth: Brazil (4%), Bolivia (2.3%), and Central America (0.7%).
• Decline: Most other countries saw a decline in consumption, with Venezuela experiencing the largest drop at -24% in Q1 2018.
• Shoppers' Behavior: Most Latin American consumers are buying fewer items than last year, indicating a shift in spending habits.

Value Sales and Inflation

• Value Sales Growth (Year ending March 2018): 5.3%
• Q1 2018 Value Sales Growth: 3.1%, lower than the estimated inflation rate of 3.6%.
• Inflation Impact: Value sales are primarily driven by inflation, but some countries are seeing increased demand for higher-value products.

Economic and Consumer Trends

• Consumer Prioritization: Consumers are shifting their budgets away from groceries to other sectors such as technology, tourism, and essential services (e.g., gas and electricity).
• Private Label Growth: Private label brands are gaining market share, especially in Central America, Mexico, and Colombia.
• Premium Brands Decline: Premium brands have lost 0.6 sharepoints in the past three years, mainly in Argentina, Colombia, and Ecuador.

Retail and Format Trends

• Slowdown in Major Cities: The slowdown is most pronounced in capital and Tier 1 cities.
• Tier 2 Cities Growth: Tier 2 cities, such as Cochabamba in Bolivia, Occidente in Mexico, and regions in Brazil, are showing healthier growth in both volume and value.
• New Retail Formats: Cash & carry, discounters, and pharmacies are performing well, and traditional trade is losing market share.
• Country-Specific Formats: In Chile, shoppers are increasingly buying from fairs and distributors. In Venezuela, due to product scarcity, FMCG exchanges between families and neighbors have increased to 8% of the market. In Mexico, low-income families are turning to tianguis (traditional market stalls) for fresh food.

Regional Insights

• Brazil: Volume sales increased by 4.1%, but this is a recovery rather than real growth. Consumers are buying smaller pack sizes, and cash & carry and pharmacy stores are performing best.
• Argentina: The market is at a turning point with a decline in volume growth. Economy brands are gaining traction, while premium brands still dominate in households with children.
• Colombia: The decline in FMCG volume is stabilizing, with a -0.7% shrinkage in Q1 2018 compared to -1.2% in 2017. Value sales are increasing, and there's a shift from fresh to UHT (Ultra High Temperature) dairy products.
• Mexico: Volume and value sales have declined due to inflation. Private labels and economy brands are gaining share, while the Occidente region continues to grow.

Opportunities

Despite the overall slowdown, there are still pockets of growth:

• Private Label Brands: Gaining market share across several countries.
• Secondary Cities: Showing healthier growth in volume and value.
• New Retail Formats: Cash & carry, discounters, and pharmacies are emerging as strong performers.
• Strategic Adjustments: Retailers and brands need to focus on winning each shopping trip and ensuring their products are chosen by consumers.

Conclusion

The FMCG market in Latin America is at a critical juncture, marked by a slowdown in volume growth and shifting consumer priorities. While the region faces economic challenges, there are still opportunities for growth in specific countries, regions, and retail formats. Brands and retailers must adapt to these changes by focusing on value, affordability, and the evolving retail landscape.