世界发展银行-Early-Labor-Market-Impacts-of-COVID-19-in-Developing-Countries_6页_442kb

Early Labor Market Impacts of COVID-19 in Developing Countries

Core Content

The World Bank's JobsWatch report provides an analysis of the early labor market impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in 39 developing countries, based on high-frequency phone survey (HFPS) data collected between April and July 2020. The study highlights the severe disruptions in employment, income, and working conditions experienced by workers during the initial phase of the pandemic.

Main Findings

• Work stoppages were widespread, with 34% of respondents reporting that they stopped working.
• Regional variations were observed:
  • Latin America & Caribbean (LAC): 48% of workers stopped working.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA): 26% of workers stopped working.
  • East Asia & Pacific (EAP): 21% of workers stopped working.
  • Europe & Central Asia (ECA): 29% of workers stopped working.
  • Middle East & North Africa (MENA): 45% of workers stopped working.
• Income loss was even more prevalent than work stoppages, with 62% of households reporting total income loss.
• Partial or no payments for work performed were reported by 20% of wage workers, indicating reduced economic activity affecting wages.
• Job changes were also significant, with 9% of respondents reporting job changes due to the pandemic.
• Agricultural workers experienced less severe work stoppages (22%) compared to those in industry (40%) and services (38%).

Key Insights

• Work stoppages and income loss were more pronounced in upper middle-income and lower middle-income countries.
• In Sub-Saharan Africa, the relationship between work stoppage and GDP projections was weak, suggesting that informal employment and underreported economic activities may have contributed to the discrepancy.
• Macroeconomic indicators like GDP growth projections did not fully capture the household-level labor market impacts, especially in SSA.
• Phone surveys provided timely and detailed insights into labor market disruptions, which are not typically included in macroeconomic models.

Methodology and Data

• The data was collected through high-frequency phone surveys (HFPS) in the December 1 vintage of harmonized data.
• The World Bank harmonized the surveys to ensure consistency across countries.
• The data includes:
  • 6 countries in Europe & Central Asia
  • 7 countries in East Asia & Pacific
  • 12 countries in Latin America & Caribbean
  • 2 countries in Middle East & North Africa
  • 12 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa
• Income groups:
  • 8 low-income countries
  • 17 lower middle-income countries
  • 10 upper middle-income countries
  • 4 high-income countries

Policy Implications

• The report emphasizes the need for investments in statistical and physical infrastructure and human capital to enable rapid deployment of phone surveys during future crises.
• Establishing Emergency Observatories can help decision-makers obtain real-time data for timely policy responses.
• The HFPS data is a valuable tool for monitoring labor market impacts, especially in regions with limited official data.

Conclusion

The early labor market impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in developing countries were severe and widespread, with significant work stoppages, income losses, and partial payments. These effects varied across regions and income groups, and were not fully captured by macroeconomic indicators. The use of high-frequency phone surveys offers a timely and detailed alternative for understanding labor market dynamics, and the establishment of Emergency Observatories is recommended to improve future crisis response.