2014年-世界发展银行全球_Bhutan_Poverty_Assessment_2014_130页_7mb

Bhutan Poverty Assessment 2014 Summary

Core Content

This report presents the first poverty assessment for Bhutan conducted by the World Bank in collaboration with the Royal Government of Bhutan through the National Statistics Bureau (NSB). It analyzes the evolution of poverty, shared prosperity, and inequality in Bhutan from 2007 to 2012, and explores the drivers and vulnerabilities of poverty reduction.

Main Points

Poverty Reduction

• Rapid and Inclusive: Bhutan's poverty reduction has been fast, broad-based, and inclusive.
• Consumption Poverty: The percentage of consumption-poor households halved from around 25% in 2007 to 12% in 2012.
• Extreme Poverty: Extreme poverty dropped to 2% in 2012, nearly ending it within a generation.
• Multidimensional Poverty: The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) declined by two-thirds, from 25% to 12.7%, indicating improved access to education, health, and living standards.

Shared Prosperity

• Bottom 40% Growth: The bottom 40% of the population experienced faster growth than the rest, except the top 10%.
• Pro-Poor Growth: Economic growth has been pro-poor, with declines in both headcount and poverty gap across all poverty bands.

Inequality

• Stable Inequality: Inequality levels remained stable during the period, allowing growth to have a full effect on poverty reduction.
• Uneven Reduction: Poverty reduction was uneven across dzongkhags, with some areas lagging behind.

Key Findings

Poor and Near-Poor Populations

• Welfare Indicators: The poor and near-poor lagged in access to assets and amenities.
• Health and Nutrition: While dietary diversity improved, the poor still had limited access to diversified food groups, especially protein sources.
• Gender and Poverty: Female-headed households are not equally benefiting from growth. Despite equal poverty incidence, some female groups (e.g., married and divorced) face higher poverty rates than their male counterparts.
• Land Ownership: Landless households and small landholders face greater challenges in escaping poverty, highlighting the importance of land ownership.

Children's Opportunities

• Equal Access: Opportunities for children are becoming more equal across income classes.
• Education Gaps: Inequities in secondary education completion persist, with only 32% of children achieving adjusted completion rates in 2012.
• Infrastructure: Bhutanese children have better access to education and infrastructure services than their counterparts in other South Asian countries.

Poverty Drivers

• Agricultural Commercialization: Increased commercialization of agriculture is a major driver of rural prosperity.
• Transport and Trade: Expansion of rural roads and trade agreements with India and Bangladesh have helped reduce poverty.
• Hydroelectric Projects: These projects have created jobs and infrastructure, benefiting the poor indirectly.
• Education and Land: Education and land ownership are key factors in escaping poverty.

Vulnerabilities

• Rural Vulnerability: Rural residents, especially those with low education and informal jobs, are more vulnerable to falling back into poverty.
• Environmental Risks: Challenges such as "greening disease" in oranges, cardamom plant diseases, and wildlife damage persist.
• Food Security: Bhutan's reliance on food imports increases vulnerability to price shocks.
• Fuel Prices: Fluctuations in fuel prices can push a small percentage of the population into poverty.

Recommendations

• Formal Social Protection: Introduce formal social protection mechanisms to help vulnerable groups cope with economic shocks.
• Micro-Credit Programs: Implement well-targeted micro-credit programs to support small-scale farmers and landless households.
• Targeted Interventions: Define clear target groups for poverty reduction and focus on the bottom 40%.
• Private Sector Development: Encourage private sector-led growth to create jobs and improve living standards.
• Infrastructure Development: Continue expanding rural roads and improving access to electricity and irrigation.
• Crop Insurance: Explore the feasibility of crop insurance to mitigate risks from diseases and natural disasters.
• Education and Training: Enhance secondary education completion rates and provide higher education opportunities to youth.

Conclusion

Bhutan's poverty reduction is sustainable in the medium term, driven by trade expansion, infrastructure development, and hydroelectric projects. However, vulnerabilities persist, particularly in rural areas and for vulnerable groups. The report emphasizes the need for continued efforts in addressing these challenges to ensure long-term shared prosperity and inclusive growth.