2017年-世界发展银行全球_Zanzibar_Poverty_Assessment_118页_1mb

Zanzibar Poverty Assessment Summary

Core Content

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of poverty and inequality in Zanzibar and Mainland Tanzania from 2010 to 2015. It outlines the evolution of poverty trends, the structure of poverty, labor market dynamics, and the role of geographic disparities in shaping poverty outcomes. The study emphasizes the importance of understanding the multidimensional aspects of poverty and how they interact with economic, social, and geographic factors.

Main Findings

Poverty Trends

• Urban Poverty Declined: Zanzibar saw a significant decline in urban poverty, with a reduction of 11 percentage points between 2010 and 2015.
• Rural Poverty Unchanged: Rural poverty in Zanzibar remained stable, while poverty increased on the island of Pemba.
• Island Disparities: The island of Unguja (main urban center) recorded the most substantial poverty reduction, whereas Pemba, which is predominantly rural, experienced a rise in poverty.
• National Level: Basic needs poverty decreased by 4.5 percentage points, and extreme poverty by 1 percentage point at the national level in Zanzibar.
• Poverty Line Sensitivity: The sensitivity of poverty rates to changes in the poverty line was analyzed, showing how adjustments in the poverty line can influence the interpretation of poverty levels.

Poverty Structure

• Multidimensional Poverty: Defined as a lack of at least 30% of well-being indicators across five dimensions: education, housing, access to basic services, assets, and consumption.
• Severe Deprivation: Households deprived in more than 50% of indicators are considered severely poor.
• Vulnerability: Households deprived in 10–30% of indicators are classified as vulnerable to multidimensional poverty.
• Key Deprivations: The poor had limited access to safe drinking water, electricity, and sanitation, and lower asset ownership compared to non-poor households.
• Education and Assets: Higher education levels and asset ownership were associated with lower poverty rates, while lower education and fewer assets were linked to higher poverty.

Labor Market and Informal Sector

• Employment Trends: The labor market in Zanzibar showed a shift towards more productive sectors, including household businesses and nonfarm activities.
• Sectoral Composition: The services and trade sectors were the largest contributors to employment, followed by construction and mining.
• Unemployment and Underemployment: Unemployment rates were higher in rural areas and among certain demographic groups. Underemployment was also a significant issue, particularly in the nonfarming sector.
• Informality: A large proportion of the workforce in Zanzibar and Mainland Tanzania was engaged in informal employment, especially in rural and less developed regions.
• Gender Inequality: Women had lower income and wage levels compared to men, with the gender income gap influenced by both endowment (such as education and access to resources) and returns (such as employment opportunities and productivity).

Key Drivers of Poverty Reduction

• Education Returns: Increased returns to education, particularly secondary education, played a crucial role in reducing poverty.
• Economic Activity: Higher productivity in household businesses and nonfarm sectors contributed to improved economic conditions.
• Infrastructure Access: Improved access to basic services (water, electricity, sanitation) in urban areas enhanced welfare and reduced poverty.
• Asset Ownership: Greater ownership of modern assets, such as cell phones, was linked to welfare gains and poverty reduction.
• Spousal Involvement: Increased participation of spouses in nonfarm activities and higher returns helped reduce the negative impact of large household sizes and child numbers on well-being.

Geographic Disparities

• Urban-Rural Divide: Urban areas in Zanzibar experienced significant poverty reduction, while rural areas saw little change or even an increase.
• Pemba's Underdevelopment: Pemba's predominantly rural population and underdeveloped urban sector limited its economic growth and access to services, exacerbating poverty levels.
• Service Access: Poor households in Pemba and rural Mainland Tanzania had significantly less access to basic services and financial tools like mobile banking and SACCOS.
• Spatial Inequality: Geographic disparities in access to services and infrastructure contributed to persistent spatial inequalities, with rural and Pemba areas lagging behind urban and Unguja counterparts.

Human Development and Education

• Educational Attainment: Zanzibar's population had higher educational levels compared to Mainland Tanzania and the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).
• Health Indicators: Health outcomes in Zanzibar were generally better than in Mainland Tanzania and SSA, though malnutrition and infant mortality remained serious issues.
• Infant Mortality: Most under-5 deaths were attributed to early childhood mortality, with potential gaps in health services and lack of support for young mothers contributing to this trend.

Conclusion

The report highlights that while Zanzibar made progress in reducing poverty, especially in urban areas, significant challenges remain, particularly in Pemba. Geographic disparities in access to services, infrastructure, and economic opportunities continue to hinder poverty reduction and inclusion. Addressing these disparities, improving access to education and financial services, and enhancing productivity in rural areas are essential for achieving more inclusive and sustainable development.