2016年-PIIE彼得森国际经济研究所_The_Current_Currency_Situation_13页_881kb

报告摘要

Summary of "The Current Currency Situation" by William R. Cline and John Williamson

Core Content

This paper analyzes the state of global currency markets as of late October 2011, comparing current exchange rates to fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) estimated in May 2011. It highlights the impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on global currency dynamics and evaluates the misalignment of major currencies relative to their FEERs.

Main Changes Since April 2011

The US dollar remained relatively stable from April to July but experienced a significant rise in August, reaching a 3.4% increase above the April level by early October.
By end-October, the dollar had only slightly appreciated (0.9%) compared to April.
The safe-haven effect was a key driver of the dollar's strength, particularly during the European crisis.
The yen and yuan showed different patterns: the yen strengthened significantly due to its safe-haven status, while the yuan continued its gradual appreciation under government policy.

Updated Effective Exchange Rates

Table 1 provides a comparison of real effective exchange rates (REERs) and FEERs for 30 countries from April to late October 2011.
The US dollar remained overvalued by about 9.3% in late October, similar to its overvaluation in April.
The Chinese RMB improved significantly, reducing its undervaluation from 16.0% to 10.6%.
The euro remained close to equilibrium, despite some depreciation.
The yen appreciated to a point where it became overvalued, though not against the dollar.
Mexico and Canada experienced a significant shift towards undervaluation, which affects the US REER.

Key Observations on Misalignment

Overvalued currencies include: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, New Zealand, South Africa, Turkey, and the United States.
Undervalued currencies include: China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Sweden, and the Philippines.
In equilibrium are: the euro area, India, Indonesia, Korea, Thailand, and some smaller countries.

Bilateral Exchange Rates Against the Dollar

Table 2 compares FEER-consistent and actual exchange rates against the dollar.
Most currencies were undervalued relative to the dollar, with only a few needing depreciation.
The RMB and Mexican peso are among the most undervalued, with the peso becoming more undervalued than the RMB.
The yen was overvalued in effective terms, but not against the dollar.
The Swiss franc was undervalued, but the Swiss National Bank's intervention was criticized as excessive.

Special Cases: Japan and Switzerland

Japan's yen was overvalued in effective terms, and its intervention was deemed justifiable due to the overvaluation.
Switzerland's franc was undervalued, but the intervention was criticized as unnecessary.
The safe-haven effect influenced both countries, but the implications for exchange rate policy differed.

The European Crisis

The European sovereign debt crisis has exposed the lack of exchange-rate flexibility within the euro area.
Countries like Greece, Ireland, and Portugal were unable to adjust their exchange rates due to their fixed currency status.
The euro area is now more vulnerable to sudden capital flow stops, and the previous assumption of zero sovereign risk has been challenged.

Implications for Exchange Rate Policy

The paper suggests that exchange rate misalignment is a significant concern, with many currencies needing adjustment to reach FEERs.
The FEER-consistent rates indicate that most currencies are undervalued relative to the dollar.
The euro area is treated as a single currency zone, and its internal imbalances are now a central issue in the current crisis.

Conclusion

The paper emphasizes the need for a better understanding of currency movements in light of the current crisis.
It highlights the role of the safe-haven effect in strengthening the dollar and the impact of the European crisis on global markets.
The RMB and euro area have shown the most significant improvements in alignment with FEERs.
The Swiss franc and yen have experienced strong appreciation, which has led to debates about the necessity and justification of intervention.

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