20201106-招银国际-比亚迪-002594.SZ-Momentum_to_maintain_with_NEV_sales_7页_1mb

报告摘要

CMB International Securities | Equity Research | Company Update Summary

Core Content

This document provides an equity research update on BYD (002594 CH), highlighting its NEV (New Energy Vehicle) segment performance and earnings guidance. The report emphasizes the company's strong growth in the NEV sector, its improved financial outlook, and the analyst's BUY rating with an updated target price of RMB223.8.

Main Points

Sales Performance (October 2020):
- Total auto sales reached 48K units, up 16.1% YoY.
- NEV sales amounted to 23K units, a 84.7% YoY increase.
  - NEPV (New Energy Passenger Vehicle): 22K units (+83.1% YoY)
  - NECV (New Energy Commercial Vehicle): 1.2K units (+123.2% YoY)
- Model Han delivered 7,545 units in October, exceeding expectations.
- ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales were 25K units, down 14.2% YoY but up 9.9% MoM.
Earnings Guidance:
- 4Q20E earnings guidance: RMB4.2bn–4.6bn in 2021E.
- The analyst raised the 2021E bottom-line forecast to RMB6.88bn, a 30% increase from the previous estimate.
- EPS forecasted at RMB2.43, up 25% from the prior estimate.
Valuation and Market Sentiment:
- The analyst believes the re-rating of BYD is sentiment-driven, due to the positive outlook for NEV.
- The NEV segment is expected to contribute significantly to the company's revenue and profitability.
- The P/S multiple for the NEV segment is estimated at 6.5x for FY21E, which is lower than peers (average 10.1x).
- The base case target price is RMB223.8, reflecting a 7x P/S multiple, with a 43.7% increase from the previous target.

Key Financial Highlights

Metric	FY18A	FY19A	FY20E	FY21E	FY22E
Revenue (RMB mn)	130,055	127,739	156,971	208,657	272,410
YoY growth (%)	22.79%	-1.78%	22.88%	32.93%	30.55%
Net income (RMB mn)	2,780	1,614	5,210	6,884	10,606
EPS (RMB)	0.93	0.50	1.81	2.43	3.79
YoY growth (%)	-34%	-47%	265%	34%	56%
P/E (x)	198.39	371.70	101.95	76.17	48.76
P/B (x)	9.14	8.88	8.06	7.20	6.16
ROE (%)	5.05%	2.88%	8.73%	10.38%	13.96%
Net gearing (%)	64%	79%	86%	78%	72%

Earnings Revision

Metric	CMBIS New	CMBIS Old	Consensus	Change (%)
Revenue (RMB mn)	156,971	156,971	148,041	+6%
Gross profit (RMB mn)	28,095	26,647	23,981	+17%
Operating profit (RMB mn)	7,383	5,911	8,991	-18%
Net profit (RMB mn)	5,210	4,218	3,939	+32%
EPS (RMB)	1.81	1.45	1.44	+26%
GPM (%)	17.90%	16.98%	16.20%	+1.7 ppt
OPM (%)	4.70%	3.77%	6.07%	-1.4 ppt
NPM (%)	3.32%	2.69%	2.66%	+0.7 ppt

Revenue Breakdown

Segment	FY18A (RMB mn)	FY19A (RMB mn)	FY20E (RMB mn)	FY21E (RMB mn)	FY22E (RMB mn)
Automobiles and Related Products	76,007	63,266	62,154	90,849	122,661
Handset Components and Assembly Services	42,230	53,380	81,565	101,466	117,092
Rechargeable Batteries and Photovoltaic	8,950	10,506	12,607	14,498	16,238
Power battery	-	-	-	667	14,647
IGBT	-	-	-	369	803
Total Explicit revenue	130,055	127,739	156,971	207,620	256,959

Valuation Comparison

NEV Company	Ticker	FY21E Sales (RMB mn)	Market Cap (US$, mn)	P/S multiple FY21E
Tesla	TSLA US Equity	39,908	79,047	8.9
Nio	NIO US	4,037	51,368	12.7
Li Auto	LI US	2,523	21,168	8.4
XPENG	XPEV US	1,967	20,124	10.2
WM Motor	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
BYD NEV segment	1211 HK/002594 CH	7,969	51,797	6.5

Financial Summary

Income Statement (YE 31 Dec)

Metric	FY18A (RMB mn)	FY19A (RMB mn)	FY20E (RMB mn)	FY21E (RMB mn)	FY22E (RMB mn)
Revenue	130,055	127,739	156,971	208,657	272,410
Cost of sales	(108,725)	(106,924)	(128,876)	(172,617)	(225,595)
Gross profit	21,330	20,814	28,095	36,039	46,815
GPM (%)	16%	16%	18%	17%	17%
Operating profit	4,241	2,312	7,383	10,097	15,301
Net profit	2,780	1,614	5,210	6,884	10,606
NPM (%)	3%	2%	4%	4%	5%

Cash Flow (YE 31 Dec)

Metric	FY18A (RMB mn)	FY19A (RMB mn)	FY20E (RMB mn)	FY21E (RMB mn)	FY22E (RMB mn)
Net cash from operating	12,523	14,741	11,912	12,919	27,641
Capex & investments	(6,076)	(12,040)	(12,992)	(13,608)	(14,961)
Net cash from investing	(14,231)	(20,881)	(17,919)	(19,584)	(21,310)
Net cash from financing	3,917	6,610	8,682	8,032	(3,955)
Net change in cash	2,209	470	2,675	1,368	2,376

Balance Sheet (YE 31 Dec)

Metric	FY18A (RMB mn)	FY19A (RMB mn)	FY20E (RMB mn)	FY21E (RMB mn)	FY22E (RMB mn)
Total equity	60,694	62,601	68,689	77,067	89,918
Shareholders' equity	55,198	56,762	62,587	70,062	81,837
BVPS (RMB)	20.23	20.81	22.94	25.68	30.00

Key Ratios

Ratio	FY18A	FY19A	FY20E	FY21E	FY22E
Sales mix (%)	-	-	-	-	-
Automobiles	58%	50%	40%	44%	45%
Handset Components	32%	42%	52%	49%	43%
Rechargeable Batteries	7%	8%	8%	7%	6%
Gross profit margin	16%	16%	18%	17%	17%
Pre-tax margin	3%	2%	5%	5%	6%
Net margin	3%	2%	4%	4%	5%
Effective tax rate	19%	13%	15%	16%	14%
Current ratio (x)	0.99	0.99	0.97	0.96	0.97
Quick ratio (x)	0.59	0.59	0.57	0.54	0.53
Cash ratio (x)	0.11	0.12	0.12	0.10	0.10
Total debt / total equity	221%	213%	234%	259%	258%
Net debt / equity ratio	64%	79%	86%	78%	72%
ROE (%)	5%	3%	9%	10%	14%
ROA (%)	4%	3%	5%	6%	7%

Conclusion

BYD is showing strong momentum in its NEV segment, with a significant YoY increase in sales and improved ASP and GPM. The analyst has reiterated the BUY rating and raised the target price to RMB223.8, citing optimistic market sentiment and the potential for further growth in NEV sales due to new models and production ramp-ups. The company's financial performance is expected to continue improving, supported by cost control and strong revenue growth in the NEV and handset components segments. The valuation analysis indicates that the NEV segment is currently undervalued compared to peers, providing a risk-reward opportunity for investors.