巴黎银行-南非-宏观策略-南非：EFF上升，ANC下滑-20180925-11页_485kb

South Africa: Political Poll Analysis Summary

Core Content

A recent poll by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) highlights significant shifts in political support in South Africa, with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) gaining traction and the African National Congress (ANC) experiencing a decline in support. The poll was conducted in September 2018 and provides insights into voter intentions ahead of the 2019 elections, which must occur before 4 August 2019.

Main Findings

ANC Support Declining

• ANC support dropped to 53% (under 100% turnout) from 62% in 2014.
• In Gauteng, the largest province by GDP and population, the ANC could slip below 50%, potentially leading to a coalition government.
• The ANC's decline could hurt President Ramaphosa's chances of retaining leadership at the 2022 National Conference and undermine his reform agenda.

EFF Gaining Ground

• EFF support increased to 12% (under 83% turnout), double its 2014 level.
• The poll suggests that turnout will be a critical factor for the EFF, as it tends to perform worse with lower turnout.
• Despite the racialised rhetoric, the EFF is gaining support among black voters, indicating a shift in political alignment.

DA Steady, with Growing Cross-Racial Appeal

• The Democratic Alliance (DA) maintains a strong base among minority voters, with 64% support in Gauteng.
• The DA is also gaining black voter support, although at a lower rate than the EFF.
• The DA's support is likely understated in the poll due to the high turnout baseline.

Key Issues and Voter Priorities

Land Reform is Not a Top Priority

• Land reform is ranked 12th among voter priorities, suggesting it is not the primary concern for most South Africans.
• Jobs are the top priority with 47% support, followed by drugs, crime, and corruption.

Racial Voting Patterns

• Voters continue to vote along racial lines, with the ANC maintaining strong support among black voters.
• Minority voters (particularly white voters) are more likely to turn out, influencing the overall electoral landscape.

Regional Insights – Gauteng

Gauteng Voting Intentions

• Under an 83% turnout assumption, the ANC’s support in Gauteng is at 46%, down from previous levels.
• DA support is at 28%, with black voters contributing 12% and minority voters at 64%.
• The EFF gains 17% support in Gauteng, with black voters at 24% and minority voters at 0%.

Implications for Ramaphosa

• A decline in ANC support in Gauteng could destabilise Ramaphosa's reform programme and threaten his leadership.
• The poll notes that turnout and margin of error (6.2% for Gauteng-specific data) could significantly affect the final outcome.

Conclusion

• The EFF is gaining momentum, but its success hinges on higher turnout.
• The ANC is in trouble, especially in Gauteng, where a coalition government may become necessary.
• The DA remains steady, with growing cross-racial appeal and strong minority voter support.
• While the poll provides a snapshot of current sentiment, it is not a prediction, and voter preferences may change before the elections.

Methodology and Caution

• The poll is based on an 83% turnout assumption, which may overstate the EFF's support and understate the DA's.
• The Gauteng data has a higher margin of error, making it less reliable.
• The report is non-independent research and is intended for professional clients and relevant persons only.
• It is not investment research and should not be relied upon for investment decisions.

Legal Notice

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Summary of Key Poll Data

Turnout by Race

Voter Priorities (83% Turnout)