2019年-IMF国际货币组织全球_United_Arab_Emirates_2018_Article_IV_Consultation_64页_2mb

United Arab Emirates: 2018 Article IV Consultation Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Article IV consultation with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) evaluated the country's economic recovery from the 2015–16 slowdown, which was primarily driven by falling oil prices. The consultation highlighted the UAE's strong policy response, including structural reforms and fiscal adjustments, to ensure economic resilience and long-term stability.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Recovery and Growth Prospects

• Recovery from slowdown: The economy began to recover from the 2015–16 slowdown, with non-oil growth projected to rise to 3.9% in 2019 and 4.2% in 2020.
• Oil sector improvement: The oil sector's prospects have improved due to higher oil prices and increased output, with oil exports projected to reach 84.9 billion USD in 2019.
• Overall GDP growth: Real GDP growth is expected to be around 3.7% for 2019–20.

Inflation and Financial Stability

• Inflation remains low: Despite the introduction of VAT in early 2018, inflation is expected to stay low, with an average of 1.9% in 2019.
• Banks remain stable: Banks are still liquid and well-capitalized, with the capital adequacy ratio above 18% in Q2 2018. Non-performing loans (NPLs) increased slightly to 7% of total loans in Q2 2018, but remain fully provisioned.

Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal easing: Fiscal easing is in place to support non-oil growth, with the non-oil primary deficit widening to 30% of non-oil GDP in 2018.
• Fiscal consolidation: Once the recovery gains momentum, fiscal consolidation is expected to resume to ensure intergenerational equity and debt sustainability.
• Fiscal surplus: The overall fiscal balance is projected to turn to a surplus in 2019, with a positive outlook over the medium term.

External Sector

• Current account surplus: The current account surplus nearly doubled to 6.9% of GDP in 2017, and is expected to reach 7.1% in 2018.
• External risks: Downside external risks have increased due to tightening global financial conditions, emerging market volatility, geopolitical tensions, and rising protectionism.
• Reserves and stability: International reserves are expected to grow to $129.5 billion in 2019, supporting external stability.

Structural Reforms

• Fiscal and structural reforms: The UAE has implemented a range of structural reforms, including the introduction of VAT, business licensing reforms, and easing foreign investment restrictions.
• Private sector development: Efforts to boost the private sector's role in the economy include reducing costs for business registration and expansion, and introducing long-term residence visas for professionals and retirees.
• Productivity and competitiveness: The reforms aim to increase competition, improve financial inclusion, and reduce labor market fragmentation to promote a knowledge-based economy.

Financial Sector

• Supervisory vigilance: The UAE is encouraged to enhance supervisory vigilance and strengthen management of contingent liabilities from government-related enterprises and public-private partnerships.
• Debt and liquidity: The UAE has started issuing domestic debt securities and improved liquidity management. The financial account recorded smaller net outflows than the current account surplus in 2017.

Economic Statistics

• Improvements in data dissemination: The UAE has made progress in improving economic statistics, including the implementation of the Enhanced General Data Dissemination Systems.
• Further improvements needed: Continued efforts are needed to enhance labor, fiscal, and national accounts statistics for better transparency and decision-making.

Key Policy Discussions

A. Temporary Fiscal Easing with Firmer Fiscal Anchors

• The UAE is implementing temporary fiscal easing to support non-oil growth.
• The fiscal stimulus is expected to be phased out as the economy recovers, with fiscal consolidation resuming to ensure sustainability.

B. Safeguarding External and Financial Stability

• The UAE is advised to maintain a strong external position and enhance financial stability through improved supervision and risk management.

C. Creating a Vibrant, Diversified, Knowledge-Based Economy

• The UAE is encouraged to continue reforms to boost private sector participation and promote talent and inclusiveness.
• The government's Vision 2021 agenda emphasizes diversification and productivity growth.

D. Improving Economic Statistics

• The UAE is advised to continue improving economic statistics to support better policy formulation and transparency.

Summary of Key Indicators

Conclusion

The UAE has demonstrated resilience in the face of external shocks, thanks to its strong financial buffers and policy response. While the economy is recovering, challenges remain in terms of external risks and policy coordination. Continued fiscal and structural reforms are essential to ensure sustainable growth and macro-financial stability. The IMF has commended the UAE for its efforts and encourages further progress in financial supervision, economic statistics, and private sector development.