2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_United_Arab_Emirates_2016_Article_IV_Consultation_72页_1mb

报告摘要

IMF Country Report No. 16/251: United Arab Emirates

Core Content

The IMF Executive Board concluded the 2016 Article IV consultation with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on July 20, 2016. The consultation focused on the economic developments, policies, and risks facing the UAE in the context of persistently lower oil prices and the global economic environment.

The UAE, while in a position of strength, has faced increased macro-financial stability risks due to the prolonged low oil prices. However, large fiscal and external buffers have helped to limit negative inward spillovers and contain weakening investor appetite. The non-oil sector has been affected by fiscal consolidation, weaker private demand, and tightening financial conditions, though the increase in oil production has partially offset these impacts.

Main Points

Economic Performance

Non-oil economic activity slowed to 3.7% in 2015 and is projected to further slow to 2.4% in 2016 due to fiscal consolidation, stronger dollar, and tighter monetary conditions.
Nonhydrocarbon growth is expected to recover to above 4% in the medium term, driven by rising oil prices, increased private investment ahead of Expo 2020, and improvements in economic sentiment and financial conditions.
Real GDP growth was 5.6% in 2014, 3.7% in 2015, and 2.4% in 2016, showing a decline in non-oil growth.

Fiscal Policy

The fiscal balance turned to a deficit of 2.1% of GDP in 2015 despite prudent fiscal policies.
Fiscal consolidation was front-loaded in 2015, with the adjusted non-hydrocarbon deficit narrowing by 8.5 percentage points to 29% of non-hydrocarbon GDP.
The fiscal break-even oil price dropped from $79 in 2014 to $60 in 2015.
The deficit financing strategy should avoid over-reliance on government deposits and diversify through sovereign wealth funds and capital markets.

Financial Stability

Banks remain well capitalized and liquid, with a liquid asset ratio of 20.7% by end-March 2016.
Profitability pressures are emerging due to weakening asset quality and rising funding costs.
Nonperforming loans (NPLs) have increased slightly, with SMEs and real estate sectors being particularly affected.
The banking system has sufficient capital and liquidity buffers, but tightening lending standards and slow deposit growth are concerns.

Economic Diversification

The UAE has continued efforts to diversify its economy, with fiscal consolidation and reforms aimed at reducing subsidies and increasing non-oil revenues.
VAT introduction and excise tax increases are planned, with a corporate income tax possibly introduced in the future.
Improvements in the business environment, foreign investment liberalization, and access to finance for SMEs and startups are key priorities.
Education upgrades, innovation promotion, and entrepreneurship support are also recommended.

Exchange Rate and External Sector

The Dirham is pegged to the U.S. dollar, and the real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciated by 9.5% in 2015 due to stronger dollar and higher inflation.
The current account surplus declined to 3.3% of GDP in 2015 from 10% in 2014.
Gross international reserves increased to USD 94 billion in 2015 from USD 78.5 billion in 2014.
The peg remains appropriate for price and financial stability.

Policy Recommendations

Sustained macroeconomic policies are needed to reduce fiscal vulnerabilities and promote long-term growth.
Gradual fiscal consolidation is recommended in the short term, while stronger consolidation is necessary in the medium term to ensure intergenerational equity.
Debt management framework should be strengthened to better account for contingent liabilities from Government Related Entities (GREs) and Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs).
Macrosprudential framework should be developed, and banking supervision should be enhanced.
AML/CFT framework should be strengthened, and de-risking should be addressed.

Key Information

Fiscal Deficit: 2.1% of GDP in 2015.
Current Account Surplus: 3.3% of GDP in 2015.
Gross Central Government Debt: 16.6% of GDP in 2016.
Net Foreign Assets: 2.2% of GDP in 2016.
Gross Official Reserves: USD 95.1 billion in 2016.
Non-oil GDP Growth: 3.7% in 2015, 2.4% in 2016.
Real Estate Prices: Continued to decline, with Dubai seeing an 11% drop in 2015.
GREs Debt: Dubai had 126.2% of GDP in 2015, while Abu Dhabi saw substantial reduction.

Conclusion

The UAE has demonstrated resilience to the oil price shock, and its large fiscal and external buffers have mitigated some of the negative impacts. However, continued fiscal consolidation and economic diversification are necessary for long-term sustainability and growth. Financial stability remains strong, but profitability pressures and credit risks are increasing, requiring further prudential reforms and improvements in the business environment. The pegged exchange rate and external sector are generally stable, but external risks such as further oil price drops and global financial volatility remain concerns.