世界银行-以服务业为主导的增长：疫情后前景更好？（英）-2023.3-47页_573kb

Summary of "Services-Led Growth: Better Prospects after the Pandemic?"

1. Services Sector and Economic Growth

• The services sector has been a primary driver of economic growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) over the past three decades, contributing to about two-thirds of GDP growth. It encompasses high-skilled offshorable services (e.g., ICT, finance, professional services) and low-skilled contact services (e.g., retail, hospitality).
• Labor productivity in high-skilled offshorable services has generally outperformed manufacturing, while low-skilled contact services have lower productivity but have seen gains through innovation.
• Structural transformation has shifted employment and GDP shares toward services, offsetting declines in agriculture, with higher per capita incomes correlating with greater contributions from high-skilled services.

2. Pandemic Impact

• COVID-19 disproportionately harmed low-skilled contact services (e.g., accommodation, food, transportation) due to social distancing measures, leading to significant value-added declines in EMDEs.
• High-skilled offshorable services (e.g., ICT, finance) were less affected and saw some growth due to digitalization, which enabled remote work and home-based operations.
• Recovery has been uneven, with advanced economies recovering faster than EMDEs, and policies are needed to address disparities.

3. Role of Digitalization

• Digitalization accelerated during the pandemic, improving opportunities for scale economies and innovation in services by reducing reliance on physical proximity.
• High-skilled offshorable services benefited from digital tools, with increased adoption of AI and ML, while low-skilled contact services saw faster digitalization in services like food delivery and accommodation.
• This digital shift enhanced exports and efficiency, particularly in arts and entertainment via streaming platforms, and in other services through improved business processes.

4. Policy Recommendations

• Promote digital technology adoption in EMDEs through investment in ICT infrastructure, regulatory reforms, and training to bridge the digital divide.
• Support revival of low-skilled contact services by expanding vaccination and health services, investing in transportation infrastructure, and reducing trade barriers to foster recovery.
• Foster growth in high-skilled offshorable services by easing market access restrictions, improving workforce skills through education and vocational training, and leveraging trade agreements.

5. Key Considerations

• Digitalization and policy interventions are crucial for harnessing services-led growth, with climate change presenting both challenges and opportunities, such as services enabling climate mitigation through financial and consulting roles.
• Services sector potential depends on addressing current constraints, including low digital adoption and regulatory barriers, to drive recovery and sustainable growth.