深度-美国德国马歇尔基金会-北约威慑和恢复力的下一步行动（英文）-2021.6-17页_751kb

NATO Deterrence and Resilience: Summary

Core Content

The document outlines the evolving strategic landscape for NATO, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive and forward-looking adaptation to emerging security challenges. It highlights the importance of strengthening deterrence and resilience as key pillars of NATO's strategy, especially in response to Russia and the rise of China. The NATO 2030 initiative, launched at the 2021 Brussels summit, aims to make the alliance stronger militarily, more united politically, and more globally engaged.

Main Views

• NATO's Strategic Inflection Point: NATO is at a critical juncture due to the changing global dynamics, particularly the rise of China and the continued threat from Russia.
• Deterrence and Defense Posture: Enhancing NATO's deterrence posture is central, with a focus on rapid response, flexibility, and the ability to counter hybrid and conventional threats.
• Enhanced Forward Presence (eFP): The eFP in the Baltic states and Poland is a visible demonstration of NATO's commitment to collective defense, with the U.S. playing a key role through combat units and infrastructure support.
• Resilience Across Domains: Resilience is not only about military capabilities but also includes cyber, infrastructure, and societal preparedness. NATO must ensure its systems are robust against cyberattacks, disinformation, and other disruptive factors.
• Strategic Challenges: NATO faces multiple challenges, including the need to address China's growing influence, manage the risk of Russian-Chinese cooperation, and ensure strategic stability in the face of U.S. military realignment.
• Military Mobility: Enhancing the ability to move forces quickly across Europe is essential for NATO's rapid reinforcement and operational coherence. This involves both EU and NATO cooperation to streamline cross-border operations.
• Air and Missile Defense: European allies must prioritize the development of air and missile defense capabilities, including the ability to counter Russian cruise missiles and drones.
• Joint Operations and Fires: NATO must enhance its joint air power and precision strike capabilities to counter Russia's A2/AD strategies and maintain operational superiority.

Key Information

Deterrence Measures

• Enhanced Forward Presence (eFP): Four multinational battle groups, each with around 1,200 troops, are deployed in the Baltic states and Poland.
• U.S. Contribution: The U.S. has deployed an armored brigade combat team in Poland and stationed additional troops, including a division headquarters.
• NATO Response Force (NRF): The NRF is being expanded to 40,000 troops, including the creation of the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VHR JTF) with 5,000 troops.
• NATO Readiness Initiative: This initiative aims to ensure forces are available at high readiness levels to respond quickly to threats.

Resilience Initiatives

• Cyber Resilience: NATO has designated cyberspace as a military domain, and national offensive cyber capabilities can be integrated into missions.
• Critical Infrastructure Protection: NATO should conduct annual reviews of vulnerabilities in infrastructure, energy, and digital communications.
• Private-Public Partnerships: Enhancing collaboration with the private sector and academia is crucial for developing resilient systems.
• Resilience Targets: Concrete national resilience targets should be set to ensure a minimum standard of shared resilience.

Strategic Challenges

• Russia's Hybrid and Nuclear Threats: Russia's use of hybrid warfare, A2/AD capabilities, and the deployment of the SSC-8 missile system is a major concern.
• China's Rise: China's One Belt, One Road initiative and its influence in telecommunications and infrastructure pose a systemic challenge.
• Geopolitical Competition: NATO must address the risks of Russian-Chinese cooperation and ensure strategic stability in the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions.

Military Mobility

• EU and NATO Cooperation: Both organizations are working to improve the conditions for military mobility, including harmonizing legislation and improving transport infrastructure.
• PESCO Involvement: The Dutch-led PESCO project on military mobility has opened to U.S., Canadian, and Norwegian participation, enhancing transatlantic coordination.

Air and Missile Defense

• Conventional Capabilities: NATO is focusing on advanced conventional air and missile defense systems rather than deploying new nuclear weapons.
• European Responsibility: European allies must provide a significant portion (around 50%) of the conventional forces and capabilities needed for collective defense.

Political and Strategic Adaptation

• NATO 2030 Priorities: The alliance must stay strong militarily, be more united politically, and adopt a broader global approach.
• Strategic Concept Review: A new strategic concept is being developed to guide NATO's actions in the coming decade and solidify political cohesion.
• Transatlantic Burden Sharing: The EU's infrastructure support and military mobility efforts are vital for transatlantic burden sharing and NATO's operational effectiveness.

Conclusion

The document underscores the need for NATO to adapt to a more complex and competitive global environment. It calls for a holistic approach to deterrence and resilience, emphasizing the importance of political cohesion, military readiness, and cross-domain cooperation. The recommendations focus on strengthening NATO's eastern flank, enhancing resilience, and improving military mobility and air defense capabilities to ensure the alliance remains effective in the face of evolving threats.